Comments on The Immaculate Inning: Mariano Rivera: Greatest Pitcher of All Time

Good response, that got me thinking more.Yes, his ...

2008-07-31T13:41:09.958-05:00

Good response, that got me thinking more.

Yes, his ERA+ is stupendously the best for all pitchers over 1000 IP. You're right, that makes him the best - but, really, only if you ignore all the innings over 1000. Mariano's ERA+ is 49 points higher than Lefty Grove's - but Grove did it over almost 4000 IP.

So I did a rough and dirty comparison. I used BR's "neutralize stats" feature, so I could compare ERAs directly. I subtracted that from the neutralized average R/G (not really appropriate, but close, and the same for everyone). I'm going to take that as the average runs saved over average, per 9IP, even though it isn't quite. Then I multiplied by career IP/9.

The average R/G for everyone is 4.42. Grove had an ERA of 2.49, so he's 1.93 R/G better than average. He pitched 3940.67 IP; divide by 9 and multiply by that 1.93 and you get 845 neutralized runs saved, over an average pitcher over the course of his career.

Walter Johnson's 5914 IP saved 1380 runs. Greg Maddux has saved 764. Mariano's saved 265.

Brilliant as Mariano has been, no, I don't think it makes up for that massive difference. Even if you want to say the runs are more important, I can't quite justify it.

(Btw, I didn't say beling a reliever was easier, just different. Mariano only needs one pitch, it's true; but his job requires that that one pitch be consistently perfect, which no starter has to do.)

You make a good argument about the basis of callin...

2008-07-31T12:30:51.015-05:00

You make a good argument about the basis of calling a "greatest pitcher" in the first place. The last 30 years have seen the invention of a new position- and Rivera is the best to have ever played that position.

But one can rank the greatest players of all time at each position and still choose, from among them, the greatest position player of all time. This is because we understand the relative effect of having a great hitter or great fielder at a particular position on the field. First base defense is not as important as first base offense, for example.

So while I agree that it is certainly easier to be a reliever than to be a starter, and that most starters are more valuable than almost all relievers. But still, I have to look at the statistics- for all pitchers who have ever pitched more than 300 innings, Rivera has the best ERA+. For 1000 innings, it's, the best by far. It's that separation that I think makes Rivera the best ever.

Similarly if there were a catcher whose hitting statistics were so much better than other catchers (but not quite the best hitting statistics overall), there would be a good case for that player being the best ever. Rivera's position (reliever) does call for some knockdown, compared to other pitchers. But at some point, the knockdown doesn't make up for the gap between Rivera and the best of the starters. I believe it doesn't.

OK, I'll bite. I can make a counter-argument, or ...

2008-07-30T12:02:05.332-05:00

OK, I'll bite. I can make a counter-argument, or at least dispute the grounds of this one.

I wouldn't dream of disparaging Mariano's achievement in any way. He's come about as close to perfection as possible - but it's also extremely limited. No one else can do what Mariano does, and certainly not with his long-term consistency; at the same time, he's incapable of doing what every moderately successful starter does. And there definitely comes a point where 150-200 IP of grade A pitching means more - and is even a greater accomplishment - than 75 innings of A+.

A great hitter is a great hitter regardless of context, but Mariano is only a great pitcher in a very specific context - and someone else has to pitch 8 innings to get him there.

All of that makes it pretty hard for me to call him The Greatest Pitcher. In fact, I don't you can compare him with Pedro at all. We call them both "pitchers," but in fact what they do is really quite different, and I don't think they can be measured on the same scale. The category of "Greatest Pitcher" really doesn't exist anymore; it has to be two categories, because it's two very different jobs.

So call Mariano The Greatest Relief Pitcher. I don't think it's valid to go beyond that.