The Last Time

The average US price for a gallon of gasoline was $1.82.

One share of Google stock was $187.40.

The HMS Scott reveals, via mapping of the seafloor, a 100 m landslide at the epicenter of the deadly 2004 earthquake/tsunami in the Indian Ocean.

Year 4702 (Year of the Rooster) began in the Chinese calendar.

The #1 song on the Hot-100 Billboard charts was "Let me love you" by Mario

The top movie at the box office was "Boogeyman." It was about to be replaced by "Hitch."

Cuba begins a ban on smoking in public places.

President George W. Bush, just two weeks into his second term, announces a tax increase.

Two months before his death, Pope John Paul II allows an American cardinal to give the Ash Wednesday address from the Vatican.

#8 Duke beat #2 North Carolina in Cameron Indoor Stadium, 71-70, after Rashad McCants dribbled the ball off his foot with two seconds left.

Duke students, acting like They Have Been There Before, stay in the stands to sing the alma mater, rather than rushing the court. Students proceed to burn shit in a disorderly fashion.

That was Wednesday, February 9, 2005. The last time Duke beat UNC at Cameron.

Carolina delenda est.

Duke-Georgetown Tempo-Free Preview

Seven inches of powdery white stuff has fallen from the sky this morning, which means it's a perfect time to stay home and analyze basketball statistics. From a tempo-free standpoint, today's game between Duke and Georgetown is an elite matchup. The Hoyas are ranked 15th in the nation by Pomeroy, but have an adjusted offense (19th) and an adjusted defense (32nd) ranking below their overall level. The reason for this is that most teams around their level in the Pomeroy rankings have one excellent score and one mediocre score (e.g. Villanova: 3rd on offense, 71st on defense).

Georgetown's strength of schedule also boosts their Pomeroy ranking. The Hoyas are coming off a blow out loss at Syracuse (3rd Pomeroy), and overall they rate as the 4th toughest schedule in the nation, and have played against the second toughest slate of defenses of all the division 1 teams. While this means that G-Town is battle tested, it also means that their raw offensive and defensive scores are much lower: they have averaged 108.7 points/100 possessions (58th) while giving up 93.1 points/100 possessions (46th). Part of the low offensive output has come while on the road against good teams-- they failed to crack the 1.0 points/possession mark at both Syracaue and Villanova.

Duke, meanwhile, is a well-kept tempo free secret this year. For whatever reason, Duke always seems to be near the top of the Pomeroy rankings in January and February, and this season is no different. Duke currently sits behind only top-ranked Kansas overall, and the Blue Devils continue to have the best adjusted offense in the country. In fact, it has only been in the past week (since the loss at NC State) that Duke has not also had the highest raw offensive efficiency as well (and are still in the top five). Clearly those numbers were going to come down with ACC play, but like Gerogetown, Duke is playing against some pretty tough defenses (6th toughest defense against).

It's hard to put a finger on what exactly is making Duke's offense so good. Pomeroy lists the "four factors" he believes are most critical to consistent play, regardless of the game's pace. Duke is a top 20 team in two of these factors: turnover rate (16.8% of possessions, 14th) and offensive rebounding percentage (40.1% of missed shots rebounded, 15th). Less impressive is the effective field goal percentage (52.9%, 41st) and FTA/FGA (36.4%, 202nd). Clearly the Duke alums have not been paying the refs off enough this year, because they are not getting to the free throw line very often at all. On the bright side, Duke's 77.0% FT% is fourth in the nation.

This is a game that will be won underneath the baskets. The first issue is Duke's shooting ability: while Duke has their characteristic 3-point shooting ability, they have struggled at times shooting from close range, and rank 79th with just 50.6% from inside the arc. Georgetown, meanwhile, struggles to keep opponents' percentages down. Because this game is being played at the Verizon Center, Duke can be expected to miss their fair share of shots. This shifts the focus to a battle between an elite offensive rebounding unit (Duke) and an elite defensive rebounding unit (Georgetown). For Duke's big men, the goal should be to grab that rebound and then go up strong through the usually foul-conscious Greg Monroe. But if the Hoya sophomore can handle Zoubek and the Plumlees, it could be a long afternoon for Duke.

In the rare event that Duke has a lights-out shooting performance on the road, the final tally could get quite high-scoring. One of the things Georgetown does do well is shoot the ball, with a 55.4% eFG% (12th). However, they are not very skilled at the other four factors (offensive rebounding, limiting turnovers, and getting to the free throw line). It's a strange game to predict because if the game were played at Cameron, one could see Duke making their shots and limiting their opponent's strength on the defensive glass, while the Blue Devils dominate their own defensive glass after limiting Georgetown's shooting ability.

But the game is being played in DC's downtown Chinatown, which adds expectation to Georgetown's shooting ability and detracts from Duke's. That's bad news as Georgetown has four players (Freeman, Vaughn, Wright and Clark) who put up eFG% north of 55. A cold shooting night from Duke and road defense as dismal as shown at NC State, and Duke looks to fall in a big way. However, more recent games have shown Duke's defense to be back on solid ground, and so if Georgetown's shooters are cooled, then look for a fight to the finish.

Prediction: Mason Plumlee and Brian Zoubek, combined, have about as much playing time (86.7% minutes played combined) as Greg Monroe (84.7%). Whoever has the most rebounds (MP2 + Zoo vs Monroe) will be on the victorious team.

Duke at UNC Preview

Hell's biggest event of the year is coming up this afternoon (4 PM, CBS). I'm only ten miles from hell, and the heat is intolerable. Luckily my air conditioner is on full blast, allowing me to write this brief preview. As if there weren't inspiration enough, Duke can knock its rivals all the way to a 5 seed (and out of a first round bye) in the upcoming ACC tournament; a loss, and UNC can hang a banner claiming a share of the ACC regular season title.

The first matchup in Cameron Indoor Stadium is an excellent example of how tempo-free stats allow for a clearer picture of what happened in a game. The score was 79-73, and the pace for much of the game was frantic, with fast breaks and layups exchanged constantly. Yet a closer look at what happened in the game shows that this was, surprisingly, a defensive struggle. There were 74 possessions in this game, still most for Duke this season, an average pace for UNC. Within this defensively minded game there were some highlights for Duke, particularly in rebounding. While Duke's 70% defensive rebounding rate was average for the season, it was the lowest percentage of offensive rebounds for Carolina on the season.

Duke's premiere defensive rebounders are Josh McRoberts, Dave McClure, who must continue this in order to hang with the Tar Heels today. On the offensive boards, Lance Thomas has been very effective in ACC play, grabbing one in 11% of his possessions. Unfortunately, the lineup for this game may be influenced by matchups more than anything else. The ability of Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek to contain Tyler Hansbrough or Brendan Wright is a key facet of this game. On the perimeter, Duke's guards did an excellent job containing long range shooting, limiting Carolina to just 3 of 12 from beyond the arc.

Carolina is coming off of two losses, in two of their worst defensive performances of the year. Duke, meanwhile, has improved its offense lately by pushing the tempo and avoiding prolonged half-court sets. While it would not be advisable to play into Carolina's strength and push the pace, a controlled up-tempo game could be the key for Duke. In addition, look for Duke's full court press to try and limit the Carolina running game. In order to be victorious, Duke needs to overcome its fatigue problems and grab buckets late in the game.

I'm not going to make a prediction this time. So there.

Duke v Maryland Preview

What a difference two weeks makes. When last the Blue Devils were set to take on the Terrapins, as they will tonight (9 PM, ESPN), both teams were coming off rough stretches. The game, in which Maryland jumped out to a commanding lead and held off a second half Duke run, was a turning point for both teams. Maryland has won four straight ACC games since, including a comeback win over UNC on Sunday. Duke, meanwhile, has also won four straight. The teams come into tonight's contest tied for fifth place in the ACC, and seedings for both the conference and national tournaments may hang in the balance.

Duke's turnaround after their first four-game losing streak in a decade has been, surprisingly, about the defense. Back when I wrote my first game preview, the Blue Devils had just opened ACC play and their offense was ranked 46 th in the nation, adjusted for tempo and opponents. More than a month later, Duke still sits tenth in the ACC in raw efficiency, scoring just 1.03 points per possession. It is not surprising then that many have missed Duke's offensive improvement: in a little over a month, Duke has improved its offense to 37 th in the nation, with an adjusted efficiency of 113.8. Before the GT road game, Nelson, Scheyer, and McRoberts were the only Duke players with OE ratings above 100, and just barely at that. Now, Paulus has joined them, at 103.7, after dropping his turnover rate considerably and improved his scoring rate. In addition, Scheyer is well above average at 116.1, and among the top 175 offensive players in the nation (in terms of tempo-free scoring). Behind this improved offense, the Blue Devils have had efficiencies above their season average in each game of their four-game winning streak.

Things have not been as bright for the Blue Devils on defense, however. It was perhaps inevitable that ACC competition would decrease Duke's defensive efficiency, but seven of Duke's last ten games have feature defensive efficiencies above 100. That should count as poor defense for a Duke team averaging a DE of 86.5 on the season. One reason, that could also explain Duke's apparent inability to sustain a large lead, could be transition defense. Duke's offense in the second half has been less efficient over the last four games- pick your reason, be it stall-ball, poor execution, rushed shots, or the opponent's full court press. Regardless, the defense has been subjected to a lot of fast breaks in the last four second-halves, as well as the first half in the previous matchup with Maryland. I will try to keep track of fast break versus half-court opportunities for both teams in this game and see what the numbers look like.

As for the game itself, it will be interesting to see if Maryland can keep up its extraordinary offense from its last five games, averaging 1.13 points per possession. In addition to improving its transition defense, Duke needs to find a way to stop the dribble-drive work of Greivis Vasquez and DJ Strawberry. In the first matchup, Maryland only attempted seven 3-pt shots (making two) and Vasquez had four of these (making one). Maryland had about as many layups and dunks attempted as they did jumpshots (compared to Duke, who took two jumpers for every layup/dunk). Therefore the Terrapins were able to successfully take Duke's perimeter defense out of play by not attempting many outside shots. Duke must toughen their defense against the drive, and the best way to do this would be to put Demarcus Nelson and Jon Scheyer on Strawberry and Vasquez, respectively. This would leave Greg Paulus to guard Mike Jones or Eric Hayes, but these players aren't much bigger than Maryland's top guards, and are certainly much slower.

On offense, Josh McRoberts must continue the domination he found while guarded by the inferior Ibekwe in the second half of the first matchup. McRoberts mixed up his scoring very well on the way to twenty points, by taking an equal number of jumpers and layups/dunks, including four of five shots from more than 3 feet. This should be complimented by a lot of dribble penetration from Scheyer and Nelson, looking to free up a shooter for an easier three-pointer.

Looking at the stats and thinking more, I don't think this is going to be the blowout I predicted to Agent Swag back on Sunday. However, I do think that Duke's new found offense will combine with a redoubled effort on defense in a rowdy Cameron Indoor Stadium, and that Duke will prevail. Duke, 75-67.

Duke at St. Johns' Preview

Duke visits Madison Square Garden, their home away from home, this afternoon to take on "home team" St. John's (2 PM, CBS). Here's a quick and dirty preview, as the game is just an hour away.

This game will not do any wonders for Duke's NCAA tourney profile, unless they are upset, which could have ramifications for the entire Atlantic Coast Conference. The ACC currently ranks first in estimated RPI and in Pomeroy's conference rating, thanks in great part to some out of conference wins by Duke, UNC, and Virginia. A loss to St. John's, who sit near the bottom of the Big East, could be part of the case that leaves Clemson and FSU on the wrong side of the NCAA tourney bubble.

The Johnnies are 13-15, 6-9 in the weak Big East. They're coming off a solid 25 point drubbing in Louisville. Their highest profile victory came in a win over Syracuse (#42 Pomeroy) at home back in January, and another home win over DePaul (#49) just after New Years'. The offense is led by 6-10 senior Lamont Hamilton, who takes about 25% of his teams' shots when he's on the court. His 105.8 offensive rating leads the Johnnies, a poor offense that ranks 175th in the nation in adjusted efficiency, at just 100.8 on the season. St John's takes a high percentage of three point shots, (38% of its shots, 81st highest in the country), but hit just 34% of these, with 6-1 junior Eugene Lawrence possessing the best 3pt percentage on the team, at 39.3%.

St. John's defense is better than it's offense, but not by much. With an adjusted efficiency of 94.6, their main strengths come from limiting field goal percentage on 2pt shots, and from
limiting opponents' trips to the free throw line. Curiously, they rank 6th in the nation in Free Throw Percentage against, at just 64.6%. It may be that their defensive efficiency may be affected by a great deal of luck. Individually, the only player of note is Lawrence, who gets steals at a rate of 3.3% of possessions played, leading the team.

Luck may have a lot to do with St. John's record overall- as their expected winning percentage (as measured by Pomeroy) predicts them to have two fewer wins. Matching up with a rejuvenated Duke team, the Johnnies have their work cut out for them. Duke's strengths, defensive rebounding and limiting 3pt percentage, play straight to two of St John's biggest weaknesses. St. John's will either need to have a performance like Duke saw from its opponents at Georgia Tech, or will need a huge game from Hamilton to stay in this game. It won't be enough. Duke, 70-50.

Duke at Boston College Preview

According to the mainstream sports media, everyone can now forget about Duke’s men’s basketball team. Four losses in a row for the first time since 95-96 must mean that this year’s team will miss the NCAA tournament, and that Duke will be an “easy win” for Boston College (9 PM, ESPN).

The comparison to the 1995-96 team is actually a fair one, if based not on team expectations but on actual game results. While this years’ team came with guarded optimism (and a #12 preseason ranking), the 95-96 team was coming off the worst Duke season in fifteen years, and the last time the Blue Devils missed March Madness in Coach K’s tenure. The team led by Jeff Capel and Chris Collins was ranked for just five weeks all season, and went though a stretch where they (stop me if you’ve heard this before) lost four straight ACC games by a combined score of 22. Flashing forward eleven years, the Blue Devils are coming off four straight ACC losses by a combined score of 21.

Statistically speaking, this is the worst Blue Devil offense since the 1996 version, with an offensive efficiency of just 107 points/100 possessions. However, they combine this with an extraordinary defense- which, despite the struggles in conference, still sits at a raw efficiency of 89 points/100 possessions, which is substantially better than any team since the 1992 championship team (DE: 91) and the 1993 Final Four team (DE: 90). With only one opponent that has a superior offensive team left on the schedule (UNC), there is a chance that this team is the best, defensively speaking, that Coach K has ever had. You can see the stats for yourself here.

That’s performance though, and in an excellent blog post recently, Ken Pomeroy talked about the false relationship of achievement and performance. Teams that win a lot tend to forget all the things that they do poorly (see: offensive rebounding and the 2006 Blue Devils), and teams that do poorly are likely to lose focus in the areas in which they have superior achievement. It is crucial for tonight’s game that Duke remember its strengths, particularly the strength of its rebounding. In the first meeting in Cameron, both teams grabbed an extraordinary number of offensive rebounds: Duke’s 54.5% offensive rebounding rate was the highest of the season, and its 59.6% defensive rebounding rate was the lowest of the season. While the Duke game was a season low-point for BC’s defensive rebounding, its own offensive rebounding (that is, 40.4%) was a simply average performance.

What this should suggest, given the nature of statistics to tend towards the mean, is that a more average effort on both boards should be expected from Duke tonight. More crucial to Duke, believe it or not, is grabbing defensive rebounds. Duke’s offensive efficiency is more highly correlated with its defensive rebounding than its offensive rebounding.

Duke failing to rebound as many of its misses as in the first match-up should lead to one obvious effect: a quicker pace. This would seem to favor Boston College, since Duke’s games have shown a much slower pace. However, pace does not seem to accurately predict the efficiency of Duke’s offense this season. Efficiency, however, has clearly dictated wins and losses for Duke. Regardless of the tempo of the game tonight, Duke needs to execute, avoiding turnovers (this has been better since the VT game) and avoiding bad shot selection (a plaguing problem since the first BC game).

The individual match-ups of players will continue to favor Duke if Demarcus Nelson can find the rhythm he has been missing the past four games. According to the “points per possession played” metric measured at dbdhoops (kind of a plus/minus for basketball), Nelson has made the offense and the defense worse in the past four games. However, Duke probably cannot survive with Nelson on the bench tonight, as his containment of Sean Marshal (1 for 8 from the field), was critical to Duke’s home victory. Further, if Josh McRoberts continues his mission to be more assertive on offense (seen in the second halves of both the UNC and Maryland games), Duke’s offense should improve enough for the Blue Devils to win. It will be a close game, but BC’s “SuperFans” won’t be rushing the court- not because of the suggestion by a jackass reporter, but because Duke will be victorious. Duke, 75-65.

Duke at Maryland Preview

It is anyone's guess what kind of basketball team will stagger into the Comcast center tonight to face Maryland (5 PM, ESPN). The Blue Devils, having lost three straight since 1995, and may soon be in a position to hear a word not uttered in that same 12 years: the bubble. Maryland is no stranger to that bubble in recent years, and after beginning the season in the Top 25, the Terrapins have gone 3-6 in the conference and will need some quality wins before they can inch their way back into tournament discussion.

Both Duke and Maryland are teams playing well below their Pythagorean projection, which is based on combined offensive and defensive rating. While this may be partly because of both teams' dominance over non-conference opponents, it does give hope that both teams will find more luck in their close games in the future, as regression kicks in. However, this assumes that the teams do not lack some skill that give them a disadvantage in games that are close. As written back before the UNC game, these things could be fatigue, coaching strategy, even foul trouble.

Duke has played extraordinary first halves in its last three games, averaging 37 points (season ppg: 69.7), and has blown double-digit leads in all three games. Of course, pace matters, but these three games had widely different paces: from the racetrack UNC game (74 possessions, most for Duke this season), to the plodding pace of the Virginia game (57 possessions, second least for Duke this season). The FSU game was an average pace for Duke this season with 63 possessions. Despite the different styles, there are some worrying trends that emerge in the tempo-free team stats. Offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate were way down for Duke in the last three contests. While this may have been understandable against players such as Al Thorton and Tyler Hansbrough, it was inexcusable against Virginia. Part of the problem may actually be perimeter defense: when Duke's guards get trapped out beyond the arc, the top pick-setter in Duke's motion offense is the big man. So Josh McRoberts or Brian Zoubek is now 25 feet from the basket as the offense gets initiated, and out of position for rebounds. McRoberts compounds the problem with his propensity to take floaters or jump hooks, limiting contact, and therefore free throws.

The top key to the last three games, though, may be that Duke has played awful defense. When Duke has kept their opponent below 100 points/possession, they are 16-0. Above 100, they are 2-6 (lumping in the 99.8 performance by VT). Allowing 68 points to Virginia on just 57 possessions was pretty terrible, and it would have been a blowout had Virginia shot better (just 44.8 eFG%). It is curious that none of the other tempo-free statistics look particularly bad for Duke: the turnover rate is below average, but Duke's defensive strength has never been turnovers. It has been limiting the opponents' field goal percentage, particularly from beyond the arc. They did this against UNC (3 for 12) and Virginia (4 for 13) but not against FSU (8 for 16).

So, what to expect from the game tonight? Maryland, like UNC, likes to play a very fast pace. Luckily for Duke, this pace has led to one of the worst offensive efficiencies in ACC play (99 pts/100 poss- only WF is less than 100). Maryland hasn't rebounded the ball particularly well on either end in conference play, and only senior forward Ekene Ibekwe stands out (11.4 OR%, 5th in conference). The Terrapins score most of their points in the paint, with only a quarter of all points scored from beyond the arc. They rely on getting to the line more than average (25% of all points scored), but they don't shoot particularly well once there (69%), dragged down by the FT% of their two most frequent foul line participants (Strawberry and Ibekwe). Often, Maryland's points are keyed by assists from their guards- in fact, they have the highest percentage of assisted points in the conference. This is led by DJ Strawberry and Greivis Vasquez, who along with reserve frosh guard Eric Hayes all have assists on greater than 22% of their possessions played. The latter two players, however, combine this with a high turnover percentage; Strawberry, meanwhile, is good at keeping the turnovers down.

On the defensive end, Maryland likes to limit their opponent's three-point shooting and free throw rate. While Duke is 6th in the nation with a 28.8 3pt% against, Maryland is fifth with 28.7% against, and is also first in conference play. Duke, meanwhile, has faltered in conference play against the trey, allowing 36.6%. Maryland has trouble limiting shooting on 2-pt shots, though they do get the highest percentage of blocks in conference, led by Ibekwe.

For all these stats, it really feels quite apparent that the key to the game is like any other for Duke: limit the pace, step up the defense. Duke has not played a game faster than 74 possessions, Maryland is 9-5 when playing slower than 74 possessions (versus 9-2 at a faster pace). Maryland is at its weakest when it cannot grab the offensive rebound; Duke should look to return to its early-season dominance on the defensive boards, with McClure gaining minutes. Josh McRoberts must have a breakout game following the disappointing showing versus UNC- he must go in strong and get Ibekwe into foul trouble, for it will be much easier for Duke to score on the interior than with long-range shots.

This is a tough matchup for Duke, against a fast-paced, athletic team on the road (it's tough to play when batteries are flying at you). Pessimism and superstition reign here; a pick against Duke may turn things around (Coach K:"Hey, did you see what Immaculate Inning said about us?!? Let's go out there and show them what's for!") Maryland, 70-65.

To Hell

This is an age where hyperbole of sports situations and instant history are taken to extreme levels, and coverage of rivalries has spiked as the mainstream sports media feeds on the yearly rivalry stories. Still, all this hype and exaggeration has still managed to underestimate the intensity of perhaps the greatest rivalry of them all: Duke and Carolina.

Many of the students at these two esteemed universities learn their loyalty while attending, realizing the greatness in the rivalry’s intensity through experience. For others, especially those raised in North Carolina, it is almost as if each child is branded with either shade of blue at birth. In 2005, months before UNC was to win their fourth national championship, I had the opportunity to witness this branding firsthand, at East Carteret High School in Beaufort, NC. You see, most of these children had never been as far away from home as Raleigh (100 miles to the northwest) or Myrtle Beach (75 miles south). And yet, the week of the Duke-Carolina game, suddenly the students started to segregate into different shades of blue. The day of the game, it was powerful: just seeing a fellow student wearing a cap with the gothic “D” prompted immediate shouts of “Duke Sucks!” and the retort “Go to Hell Carolina!” in the hallways. Nearly 200 miles from Cameron Indoor Stadium, it was no different from visiting a Wal-Mart on Tobacco Road while wearing my Duke sweatshirt, and being greeted by death-stares from UNC supporters.

The reason I offered this story is because of the ultimate futility of previewing a Duke-Carolina game in the manner I have so far offered. Statistical analysis and past performance goes out the window when rivalries are involved. It is not just pro-Duke bias I am worried about; I am quite sure that is indicated in everything I’ve written so far. It’s pro-Carolina bias as well, driven by that paranoia that is present in the best rivalries. I watched UNC dismantle (an Oden-less) Ohio State back in November, and destroy Arizona in Tempe just last month, and I can’t help but be scared for my beloved and inconsistent Blue Devils. In four years as a student, Duke lost at home three times: Georgia Tech in 2004, Maryland in 2005, and UNC in 2006. This season, Duke has lost at home twice already, and the home-court advantage that Cameron Indoor Stadium provides may not be enough to overcome a Tar Heel squad that I have built up in my mind to tremendous levels.

And my intuition is indeed supported by the statistics: though Duke’s adjusted defensive efficiency is best in the nation (80.5 points per 100 possessions), UNC is number two, and has closed the gap considerably (80.6). On offense, it is no surprise that UNC is quite superior, running over opponents with a 121 points per 100 possessions (7th in the nation) at a frenzied pace (74.2 possessions/game, 9th in nation). The portrayal in the mainstream sports media of Duke’s inept offense is pretty exaggerated, though. Many fans look at the point totals and see that Duke is averaging just 69.4 ppg, way behind UNC’s 88.1 ppg. However, Duke has one of the slowest paces in the nation (65.0 possessions/game, 252nd), and scores rather efficiently in their few opportunities (111.9 points/100 possessions, 49th in nation). This really is a match-up of two extraordinary defenses, along with one great offense (UNC) and one good offense (Duke). The game, quite clearly, will come down to which team will be able to dictate pace.

Duke can find some hope in that UNC has lost twice in conference already, both times on the road. In fact, in all three losses this season, the Tar Heels have had three of their four worst defensive games. What was key for both Virginia Tech and NC State was their ability to get to the free-throw line, making their offensive possessions much more efficient. With this efficiency, both teams were able to play a much faster game than they normally play and still be able to hang with Carolina. Both VT and NCSU were able to prevent UNC from grabbing too many offensive rebounds, and this has been one of Duke’s strengths so far as well. However, Duke has failed to get to the line very much in conference play. Rather than go through all the statistics, I figured I’d just post a chart:



This shows the relative rankings of Duke and UNC in a lot of different stats. The only unfamiliar ones may be EFG% which is effective field goal percentage (shooting success weighted by free throws and shots from behind the arc) and PPWS (points per weighted shot: how many points a team scores every time it shoots the ball). These stats were taken from Paul Rugani’s amazing site, DBDHoops.

Even if Duke is able to slow the game down to a half-court pace, they still have to deal with Tyler Hansbrough. The problem with the match-up isn’t in doubting the defensive ability of Josh McRoberts, who has been outstanding on defense. The key will be in how tight a game the referees will be calling down low. Hansbrough likes to initiate a lot of contact, and as Rugani pointed out, he shoots 4 free throws for every 5 field goals, an absurd free throw rate. Meanwhile Brandon Wright has been no slouch, shooting an EFG% of 63.4% (38th in all of D-I). If McRoberts gets into foul trouble early, this game will be all pale blue in a hurry.

The perimeter play is not as crucial for UNC, except in terms of generating assists and steals. Ty Lawson has stolen the minutes from his elders with strong play from the point guard position, and his assist/turnover ratio (4th in ACC) and steal percentage (1st in ACC) are the results on which his increased minutes are based. Limiting turnovers is once again critical for Duke, though being efficient on offense in general is going to be the key for Duke.

The Blue Devils are now playing below their winning percentage as predicted from their points for and points against totals (known as Pythagorean Winning Percentage). This is clearly due to their inability to close out close games effectively, owning a 1-3 record in games decided by five or fewer points. There are two ways to look at this number: either Duke’s “luck” will turn around and the shots will fall in crunch time, or that Duke has some kind of inability to win in close pressure situations, be it because of foul trouble or fatigue or (gasp!) poor coaching strategy. I’d like to think it’s the former, and I’d like to think that McRoberts can become a force in this game and keep it close enough for the Cameron Crazies to have a reason to burn shit tonight. Duke, 72-70.

Duke v BC Preview

This Sunday (5 PM, FSN) the Blue Devils host Boston College in a matchup of two teams coming off buzzer-beater victories in their previous games. Duke's win on the last-second layup of David McClure has been all over the news with controversy about an error in clock operation. What the tired conspiracy conversation has missed was a Blue Devils team that had controlled a strong opponent for 35 minutes, winning the battle of the boards 40-24. Boston College, meanwhile, needed a 22 footer from senior Sean Marshall to knock off Florida State at home, 85-82. It was their second game without one of the premier shot-blockers in the nation, Sean Williams, who was dismissed from the team for undisclosed disciplinary reasons. BC bounced back from a blowout loss to Clemson in their first game without Williams, but coach Al Skinner is still looking for a suitable replacement for Williams' 32.2 minutes/game.

Against FSU, Williams' place was taken by 21 unremarkable minutes from 6-10 junior John Oates, who had just two points and one rebound. Reserve center Tyrelle Blair (6-11, Jr) played 14 minutes, with four points and two rebounds. The night belonged to sophomore guard Tyrese Rice, who had 26 points and six assists, and to Marshall for his last second heroics. The reality is that BC is now a three man team, receiving 20 points each against FSU from Rice, Marshall, and senior swingman Jared Dudley. They relied on the long range shot significantly more against FSU (33.9% of shots) than they have the rest of the season (28.3%). While this was a moderately effective strategy- they hit 7 of 18 from beyond the arc, including Marshall's game winner- in the long run the poor shooting of Rice (30% 3pt on the sesaon) may force the Eagles into a dribble-penetration offense.

It is clear from the game logs that this is exactly the strategy that the three wing players have been taking in the absence of Williams. Despite the lack of an interior presence, BC managed to get to the line for 29 free throw attempts (not including the necessary foul by FSU with 16 seconds left), which was considerably more than the Seminoles. Duke's strategy should be clear, featuring Jon Scheyer, Demarcus Nelson, and McClure preventing the dribble penetration and three point shooting of the three BC guards. So far this season, Duke has limited opponents to just 27.9% from 3-pt (4th in nation) and has been successful at avoiding fouls, as opponents have a free-throw rate of just 27.1% of all possessions (23rd in nation). If these two trends hold true, Duke's #1 ranked defense should have no trouble holding the BC offense in check.

When Duke has the ball, a dribble-penetration offense may also be a wise strategy, hoping to get Marshall or Dudley into foul trouble early. McRoberts and McClure should also be able to assert dominance on the offensive glass- even with Williams the Eagles were ranked 269th in the nation, rebounding just 63.9% on the defensive end. Facing a defense not particularly adept at forcing turnovers, Greg Paulus should have no trouble continuing his improved point guard play and leading the Blue Devils to victory. Duke, 70-55.

Duke v Clemson Preview

It may be that the words "crucial ACC Showdown" have seldom, if ever, been written about a game between Duke and Clemson. Yet when the Tigers will be carrying an 18-2 record and a #17 national ranking into Cameron Indoor Stadium (Thursday, 7 PM, ESPN). Duke, meanwhile, is coming off a rejuvenating week, winning three ACC contests, albeit against three of the weaker teams in the conference. Duke will look to build its new-found offensive success and keep the heat up with the nation's best defense against a Clemson team eager to push the pace and force steals.

Clemson's first two months of its 2006-07 campaign featured domination of some smaller programs (Appalachian St, Wofford, Charleston Southern) in relative obscurity. But after opening ACC play with three straight victories, the newly ranked Tigers traveled to Maryland with the nations' only remaining unbeaten record. They did not leave with that unblemished record, falling 92-87 in a game that still features the worst defense Clemson has played thus far this season. Four days later the Tigers hosted North Carolina, and the results were less than inspiring. The Tar Heels ran up the pace and forced the worst offensive game of Clemson's season to leave with a 77-55 victory. Clemson bounced back with a solid win at Boston College, and will be looking for more ACC road blood in taking on the Blue Devils.

An outsider might look at the victories attained against lower competition, and the collapses against Maryland and UNC as evidence that the Tigers were outplaying their ability to begin the season. However, a closer look at the statistical trends in all six of Clemson's ACC contests reveals some areas that may trouble a suddenly hot Blue Devils squad. For instance, Clemson features two of the most productive players in college basketball on the offensive end: 6-3 junior guard Cliff Hammonds (11.1 ppg, 3.7 apg, 124.6 ORtg) and 6-5 sophomore swingman KC Rivers (14.3 ppg, 42% 3-pt, 124.8 ORtg). Even considering just ACC contests, Hammonds is second in the conference with a 2.88 A/TO ratio and is shooting 60% on 2-pt attempts, fourth in the conference. Rivers is also a strong ball handler (TO% of just 12.5) and spreads the offense with superior ability from long range. Down low, forwards James Mays (6-9, Jr) and Trevor Booker (6-7, Fr) grab a high percentage of offensive rebound opportunities, and as a team the Tigers recover 41% (13th in the nation).

Offensively, Clemson's weakness appears to be its inability to get to the free throw line, something they do on just 14.5%, which is dead last (336th) among all D-1 teams. Once there, the Tigers are just as bad, shooting 57.8% (331st in nation). Relying on their offensive rebounding and 2-pt field goal percentage may be difficult against Duke, however. The Blue Devils have grabbed 78% of all of their opponents' missed shots during ACC play, led by Dave McClure and Josh McRoberts. Duke is also second in the ACC in defending inside the arc, limiting opponents to just 44.1% on 2 point shots (Virginia is first at 44.0%). However, while Duke limited Wake Forest and NC State's above average 2-pt shooting ability, they struggled against a Georgia Tech team possessing a stronger overall offense. Clemson, like GT, does not take many long range shots, but have an advantage over the Yellow Jackets with Rivers' strong 3-pt shooting ability. There is a chance the game could proceed similarly to the Duke-GT game if Clemson can be strong from beyond the arc.

Defensively, the Tigers are also a top 25 team, and possess a superior ability to induce turnovers- especially steals. Led by Mays and Hamilton, Clemson generates steals on 15.5% of opponents' possessions, second in the nation, and they have actually exceeded this mark in ACC games. Add in Booker's strong blocking ability (2.1 bpg) and some solid defensive rebounding from Mays and the origins of Clemson's up-tempo pace are clear. Still, Clemson's defensive weaknesses are clear: limiting field goal percentage, especially from beyond the arc. Duke should hope for Jon Scheyer and Greg Paulus to build on last weeks' success in limiting turnovers and raining three pointers. Crisp passing and dribble-drive-dish strategies by McClure and Nelson should open up holes in Clemson's aggressive, steal-seeking defense.

While both Carolina and Maryland pushed the tempo the fastest Clemson had seen all season, the Tar Heels won with defense while the Terrapins won with offense. In addition, Clemson's close calls against Georgia Tech and Florida State were moderately paced and neither had extraordinary offensive or defensive efforts. Duke should therefore look to play within themselves rather than forcing an adaptation to the Clemson style. The Tigers do have multiple weapons which may prove costly to an often turnover-prone Blue Devil team, but if Duke continues it defensive domination and is able to slow the game to their level by limiting turnovers, Duke could roll in Cameron. Duke, 70-60.

Duke at NCSU Preview

Saturday (3:30 PM, ABC), the Blue Devils (15-3, 2-2 ACC) roll in to Raleigh to take on North Carolina State (11-6, 1-3 ACC), looking for their third ACC win in one week. Duke is coming off of a 22 point victory over Wake Forest less than two days prior, while NC State has not played since defeating the same Demon Deacons one week ago. The two contests could not have been more different, however. Duke's victory was keyed by their most effective defense of the season, limiting Wake to just 62.3 points/100 possessions, and allowed just 40 points, fewest by a Duke team in an ACC contest since 1958. The Wolfpack, meanwhile, out-gunned the Deacons, shooting over 60% from the field, including 9 of 20 from beyond the arc (an effective field goal percentage of 68.8).

The different styles in wins over Wake Forest are indicative of the larger trends for each team so far this season. When Duke has lost, it is because of below average (for Duke) defense- the Blue Devils are 1-3 when the opposing team has an offensive rating of 100 or higher. Most often, it is the opponent's free throw rate which decreases Duke's defensive efficiency, as illustrated by the Georgia Tech loss, in which the Yellow Jackets got to the line in 74% of their possessions. NC State, meanwhile, is 0-5 when their offensive efficiency dips below 100, and are 11-1 when it exceeds this average. Incidentally, it is also free throw rate which seems to drive the Wolfpack's offensive ability, and they are 2-6 when failing to get to the line in more than 30% of their possessions.

Ability to reach the free throw line is only a major factor when a team is either consistently good or consistently bad, and NC State is very much the former. Playing a rotation that barely goes seven deep, the Wolfpack are shooting over 71% from the line on the season, with sophomore forward Brandon Costner the only one shooting below 65%. This may prove to be a decisive factor in the game, as Duke will be facing a team with similar height for the first time in ACC play.

When the clock is moving, the offensive runs through 6-8 junior Gavin Grant (16.1 ppg), who has played nearly every minute of every game for NC State this season. However, Grant is not very efficient with all of his opportunities, shooting less than 30% from 3-pt range and turning the ball over at an alarming rate (28% of his possessions). His turnovers are also complimented by plenty of assists, coming at a Josh McRoberts-like frequency (24% of his possessions). Two other players are averaging 16 points per game, but with very different styles. Sophomore center Ben McCauley has been a monster down low, racking up an eFG% of 61.4% despite attempting just two long range shots all season. He is also second on the team with 3.7 apg. Costner has also put up big numbers for the Wolfpack, achieving this through above-average output in the paint and from beyond the arc.

As a team the Wolfpack shoot 58.5% on their two-point shots, which ranks fourth in the nation. If they were able to grab more offensive rebounds, their offense would be much more deadly, but they grab just 28.5% of their misses (299th in nation). They have made up for this as previously noted, by an ability to get to the free throw line (and convert), but against Duke's stifling defense, failure to create second chances may doom NC State in this contest. Indeed, Duke's Josh McRoberts and Dave McClure have above average ability to grab the defensive rebound and may make a large difference in the game.

Duke's game plan may depend on the availability of NC State senior guard Engin Atsur, who has missed 11 of the last 12 games with a hamstring injury. He did play in the loss at BC but was not a factor, with zero points in 32 minutes. In his absence, the Wolfpack play five players 30 minutes or more, with senior reserve guard Bryan Nieman getting the most minutes off the bench. If Atsur is again on the sidelines, Duke should strongly consider pushing the pace as they have in their win over Miami and the first half against Wake Forest, attempting to tire the Wolfpack and to get Grant and McCauley into foul trouble.

In the half court game, Duke's defense will need to focus on interior play- double teams and weakside help, much like they did to begin the Georgia Tech game. For Duke to be effective in this strategy, Lance Thomas must stay out of foul trouble. On offense, Duke will need to exploit NC State's inability to limit 3-pt field goal percentage- if Jon Scheyer and Greg Paulus are strong from beyond the arc, this one may not be much of a contest. However, nothing is certain on the road in the ACC, and NC State has weapons that can cut at some of Duke's weaknesses. Even so, expect Duke's newfound transition offense and continued defensive domination to control this game. Duke, 65-50.

Duke v Wake Preview

The Duke Blue Devils (14-3, 1-2 ACC) look to build on Sunday's convincing road win when they host Wake Forest (9-7, 1-3 ACC) tonight at 7 PM. Duke had its best offensive game of the season against Miami, scoring a very efficient 134 points per 100 possessions (100 is average). Jon Scheyer had his best game at Duke with 25 points including 4 of 6 from beyond the arc, and Greg Paulus turned in a solid scoring performance (15 pts, 3 of 6 3pt) and limited his turnovers (2), leading to an easy victory. Coach K's squad now looks to revenge its early ACC losses with an apparently easy slate of games
in the rest of January. Wake Forest's extremely young squad comes into the game following a six point loss at home to NC State on Saturday. The unusually long layoff between games might benefit the Deacons, who enjoy pushing the pace- their competition-adjusted tempo is 72.8 possessions per game, 25th in the nation. Compare this to Duke, who's half-court oriented offense generates just 66.1 possessions/game (223rd in nation).

At first glance this might seem an advantage for Wake Forest, considering that Georgia Tech dismantled the Blue Devil defense with a fast paced (73 possessions) game one week ago. However, pace is not the entire story when it comes to beating Duke. The Blue Devils played a similar pace against Kent State, and their opponents had similar offensive efficiencies (100.7 for GT, 98.9 for Kent State). The major difference in the game was the Duke offense-- an inefficient, poor-shooting team that was unable to get to the free throw line against Georgia Tech was the opposite against Kent State. What this means for Thursday night is that Wake Forest must limit Duke's field goal shooting and free throw rate in order for a fast pace to be effective.

Wake's defensive strength does seem to be its ability to keep the other team off the charity stripe (45th in nation in this category). Recently, however, Wake has had trouble keeping the fouls down as in losses to BC and VT. As for opponent field goal percentage, it appears that teams that shoot effectively (BC, NCSU, AF) have been very successful against the Deacons. There isn't a standout player on defense for Wake, and as a team they fail to come up with many steals or blocks and are simply average in rebounding.

On the offensive end, the story is 6-11 forward Kyle Visser, who is having a standout season as one of just two upperclassmen on Wake's roster. He's averaging 18.3 ppg, (the only player averaging double figures) and 8.3 rbg. An effective presence down low (63.4 eFG%), Visser has cracked the 25 point mark three times this season. However, the key to beating Wake is not in stopping Visser. In Wake's nine wins, he has averaged 17.1 ppg; in their seven losses, he has averaged 21.4 ppg. On an individual level, the key to stopping Wake's offense may be in limiting 5-11 freshman point guard Ishmael Smith. Smith has been a phenomenal assist man, converting on 42.4% of his possessions (4th in the nation). As the second highest scorer on the team, Smith puts up 10.9 points in Wake's wins, and just 6.4 in their losses. In addition, with the exception of an 11-assist performance against South Florida, some of Smith's worst games have come in Wake's losses. Surprisingly, to go along with his outstanding assist rate, his turnover rate is an awful 29.8% (20-25% is average for point guards... Greg Paulus is at 33.7%).

Elsewhere, there is little of note for the Demon Deacons. Freshman guard Anthony Gurley takes a lot of shots (he leads the team with 27% of Wake's shots when he's on the court), but doesn't convert on many of them (52% 2pt, 17% 3pt), and sophomore Harvey Hale is even worse in this regard. L.D. Williams and Michael Drum initiate some offense from the wing position, but they don't take nearly enough shots to make much difference in the game.

For those who enjoy the transitive property of basketball, consider: just five days after Air Force was downed by Duke 71-56, they then ran over the Deacons, 94-58. This highlights some of the qualities of Duke's defense that have been extraordinary this season, as well as the defensive futility for Wake Forest. Duke's offense should have another game to explore its new found efficiency, especially from beyond the arc. Expect everyone to get involved and if Duke is forced to run, Greg Paulus should have few problems feeding the scorers in transition. Duke once again needs to exploit its height advantage, and while Josh McRoberts and others should be able to contain Kyle Visser, this is not essential for victory. Jon Scheyer has quietly had a phenomenal season on defense for the Blue Devils with pressure on the perimeter, and if he continues this on Smith and the other Wake guards, this one could be over with a lot of time remaining. Duke, 80-55.

Duke at Miami (FL) Preview

Saying that it has been an unpredictable season in the ACC thus far is an understatement. When Duke travels to Miami to take on the Hurricanes (Sunday 5:30 PM), it will be a matchup of two teams that illustrate this well. Duke is coming off back to back losses to open its ACC schedule, the first time Coach K's teams have done that since 1993. Miami, meanwhile, has had played three contests in the league, with wildly different results. Hosting Georgia Tech in the ACC opener, Miami ran with the Yellow Jackets and came away with an eight point victory, 90-82. They then began the new year with a one point loss in a low scoring game at Wake Forest, a matchup that paired two teams predicted to be at the bottom of the ACC. Miami then won at Maryland, holding the Terrapins to just 22% shooting.

Despite two quality ACC wins, Miami sits at just 9-8, and it is a tale of which team will show up for coach Frank Haith. One thing that stands out, differentiating their wins and losses, is rebounding. In seven of its nine wins, Miami has had an offensive rebounding percentage greater than 40%; in seven of its eight losses, the percentage has been less than 40%. On the defensive end, they've allowed superior offensive rebounding in all their losses, except a Northwestern team that shot 60% from the field to knock off the Hurricanes. Overall, Miami is ranked 57th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, one of their greatest strengths. Another strength is holding onto the ball, as they are 30th in the nation with just 8% of their possessions ending in steals.

Miami is led by go-to junior guard Jack McClinton, who takes a high percentage of Miami's shots. Brian Asbury, a 6-7 sophomore forward is a strong force, garnering an impressive offensive rating of 112. Freshman Duane Collins is a force on the boards, grabbing 12.1% of offenisve rebound opportunities. As a team, they are neither effective nor prolific from beyond the arc, and are average at both getting to the free throw line and in free throw percentage.

This is, on paper, a good matchup for a Duke team looking to get back on its feet after two demoralizing losses. Duke is taller, more physical, and better statistically on offense and on defense. Miami likes to play a similar tempo to Duke, and look for Greg Paulus to bounce back from terrible games against the Techs. If Miami is to have a chance, they need to crash the boards like they have in their wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland, making up for poor shooting with many second chances. McClinton may also have a chance to exceed his 17.7 scoring average against the less agile Duke guards. If, however, Duke is able to grab rebounds on both ends of the court, and Jon Scheyer is able to shut down McClinton, Duke should roll to its first ACC win. Duke, 70-55.

Duke v GT Game Preview

Tonight at 7 PM, the Devils go down to Georgia to take on the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. Duke (13-2, 0-1 ACC) is coming after a hard-fought loss at home to Virginia Tech, while Georgia Tech (11-4, 0-2 ACC) looks to bounce back from a road loss to the undefeated Clemson Tigers. Despite an inferior record and sitting 57th in the nation in RPI, Paul Hewitt's team is ranked 20th overall by Ken Pomeroy's pythagorean method, thanks to some impressive offensive numbers. Led by a pair of freshmen: 6-8 freshman forward Thaddeus Young (27 min/g, 14.7 ppg) and 6-5 point guard Javaris Crittenton (29.1 min/g, 13.9 ppg, 6.0 apg), Georgia Tech has scored 84.4 points per contest, at an offensive efficiency that ranks 7th in the nation. However, this high-powered offense will surely miss the presence of 6-6 sophomore swingman Lewis Clinch (20.2 min/g 13.2 ppg), who was suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the university's honor code. Still, there are few easy road games in the ACC, and this will be a challenge for the young Blue Devils.

When Duke Has the Ball
Duke's oft-criticized offensive ability will be under the microscope as the university looks to avoid back to back league losses. Turnovers have been the story so far for Coach K's young squad, and the loss to VT was a prime example. The Blue Devils had their highest turnover rate of the season, wasting 31.8% of their possessions, including six each by point guard Greg Paulus and pass-happy big man Josh McRoberts. This resulted in one of the least efficient offenses of the season for Duke, though their offensive rebounding, free throw rate, and effective field goal percentage all were average for Duke this season. Overall the offense has a very slow tempo, ranked 272nd out of 318 Division I schools, at just 60 possessions per game. When adjusted for this tempo, Duke's offense actually ranks a respectable 46th in the nation. McRoberts and Paulus are joined by junior swingman DeMarcus Nelson as the three players on the team with above average Offensive Ratings (100 is average). When Duke doesn't turn the ball over (as they do on 24% of their possessions, 263nd in the nation), they are very efficient in their scoring and getting to the free throw line (14th in the nation in FTRate). One area of excellence is in 3 point shooting: though Duke only shoots from behind the arc 28.5% of the time (283rd in the nation), they make their long range shots at an impressive 40.6% (26th in nation). This is led by Greg Paulus' extraordinary 50% rate from trey land.

Georgia Tech's defense is above average, at a tempo-adjusted 40th in the nation. They have induced a turnover on 24% of possessions (eerily like Duke's offensive total, and 81st in the nation), due in large part to a very good knack for getting a steal. Crittendon causes a steal on 3.7% of possessions, but the star is senior guard Mario West, at an outstanding 5.4% of possessions, 12th in the nation among those with 40% of minutes played. Junior bigman Ra'Sean Dickey anchors the paint with a block on 7.5% of possessions, good for the top 75 in the nation (for comparison, Shelden Williams had a block in 9.5% of Duke's possessions in 2006). The story for Georgia Tech has been their ability to limit the opponent's offensive efficiency: in their four losses, they have averaged an awful defensive efficiency of 120, while they've played outstanding defense in many of their wins, such as holding Purdue to an efficiency 85.5 on a neutral court. Strongly tied to their defensive efficiency is their ability to force turnovers and their ability to limit the other team's effective field goal percentage, whether it be strong perimeter defense, shot blocking, or limiting the opponents’ chances at the free throw line.

Duke has the potential to dominate this matchup if they can keep the turnovers down, especially since the 6-10 McRoberts and 7-1 frosh Brian Zoubek will be the tallest men whenever they’re on the court. Pounding the ball inside and getting Dickey and West into foul trouble would go a long way in this game. If, however, Crittenton and West are able to get into passing lanes and make things difficult for Paulus and the other Duke guards, the resulting transition offense for Tech may be too much to handle for the Blue Devils.

When Georgia Tech Has the Ball

As mentioned, statistically speaking the Yellow Jackets have an offense that is among the best in the nation. Their most elite ability is that of the offensive rebound, which they gather on 43.4% of their possessions (4^th in the nation). Their team 2-point shooting percentage is ninth in the nation, and they are also adept at avoiding the block. Some weaknesses for this defense are in turnovers; while nowhere near Duke in the rankings, a turnover in 21.1% of possessions is not ideal. Free throws are also a problem: not only do they not get to the line very much (23.5%, 200^th) but once there, a lot of bricks fly (66.5% FT, 227th). Crittenton directs the offense and has an assist on 32.5% of his possessions, 53^rd in the nation. Scoring most frequently goes through Young; he takes 27% of his team’s shots while on the court. Overall, their offense is strong and efficient, with seven men holding offensive ratings greater than 100. However, their rating may be inflated due to some cupcake games early on against Winston Salem State and Georgia State. The loss of Clich must also be mentioned while using their statistics to make predictions. However, Georgia Tech still maintained an above average offense (110 rating) in their one point loss at Clemson, without Clinch.

Duke’s defense is much lauded and for good reason, making this an intriguing matchup. The story here is perimeter defense: Duke is #1 in the country in opponent 3 point field goal percentage, fourth in the nation in opponent’s percentage of shots from behind the arc (just 25%), and is complemented by a solid steal and block percentage. Adjusted for the slow tempo at which Duke has been playing, their defensive rating is first in the nation. In the only statistic that truly matters, Duke has limited its opponents to a staggering 54.4 points per game. It is this defense which is crucial to the Blue Devils’ success in Atlanta. In their losses, Duke had two of their three worst defensive performances of the year. A game against Air Force was the third, and Duke was only able to overcome it with their strongest offensive showing of the year. Coach K’s team will need to continue its extraordinary perimeter defense to prevent Crittenton from getting the ball down low, from where most of Georgia Tech’s shots come.

Game Plan, Outlook

A smart move for Duke would be to run a tall, athletic lineup with McRoberts joined by Lance Thomas (if he has recovered from a foot injury). In addition, they would be wise to limit the minutes of Greg Paulus if his turnovers continue, as a quicker lineup of Nelson, Scheyer, and Henderson would be considerably better on defense. Brian Zoubek has been under-utilized so far this season, and while his size would be beneficial against a shorter GT squad, his raw defensive skills may not be ideal in this situation. Look for Duke to control the pace, as Georgia Tech likes to play a considerably faster game than the Blue Devils. This can only be effective, however, if Duke solves its turnover problems and prevents the Yellow Jacket’s running game.

This is going to be one of those close, hard fought ACC road games for Duke. Ken Pomeroy’s prediction is a one point loss for the Blue Devils- basically a toss up. Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses, both teams have yet to win an ACC contest. In the end, it may be that Duke’s superior ability to get to the free throw line (so long as they shoot better from the stripe than against VT) will be the difference in this game.

Duke, 65-60.