Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Former Marlin-based Playoff Predictions

The concept of Former Marlin Power was born after the 1997 post-World Series fire sale that was instigated by Wayne Huizenga for the purpose of slashing payroll and making the team easier to eventually sell. Several good players were on this team and in the following seasons many of them went on to put up impressive numbers. As a fan it was sickening to watch players such as Moises Alou and Gary Sheffield go on to have great success elsewhere while we were stuck holding the fractured pieces of a once great team. Players such as Craig Counsell later went on to help other teams win World Series. Former Marlins became a stable fixture on any successful team.
In last night's one game playoff, it only appeared that putting in Julio Jorge, Former Marlin, was a terrible idea. In reality, the Rockies were pressing their Former Marlin(FM) advantage. The only FM the Padres had was Trevor Hoffman, while the Rockies had already played FM Matt Herges. Trevor Hoffman's Former Marlins Power wasn't enough to overcome the FM power of Herges and Julio, so the Padres fell to the Rockies.
Before I break down the week 1 games, lets go through some scientifically calculated measurements.

Any player who has been on the field as a Marlin for a single play has at least a FM power of 1. This covers everyone from Mike Piazza to Kevin Millar.

Any FM who played in the post-season for a World Series winning team gets a 50% bonus to their FM power, 75% if they were the World Series MVP.

Players who have been former Marlins twice also get a 50% bonus.

Players who were Original Marlins get a 50% bonus. I believe that's just Conine and Hoffman at this point.

Angels versus the Red Sox

Angels FM Power: 1
Darren Oliver 1 (2004 2-3 6.44 ERA)

Red Sox FM Power: 3.25
Josh Beckett 1.75 (2003 WS MVP)
Mike Lowell 1.5 (2003 WS)

As you can see, the Angels don't have much of a chance. Note that although the Sox only have 2 Former Marlins, they get the most out of what they have. If things look dicey though, they're going to really miss Alex Gonzales.

Yankees versus Indians

Yankee FM Power: 1
Ron Villone 1 (2005 3-2 6.85 ERA)

Indians FM Power: 1
Joe Borowski 1 (2006 36 Saves)

This should be a very good series with the FM Power tied. I'm calling the Yankees due to unofficial extra Marlin power from having Carl Pavano on their DL as well as having Al Leiter on the payroll as a broadcaster on YES. Neither go toward the official count, but Pavano gets the WS bonus from 2003 and Leiter is both a 2-time FM and gets the WS bonus from 1997. With FM power this tight, any advantage can tip it. Also of note, this is the We Hate the Marlins Series. The Indians lost to the Marlins in the 1997 World Series and the Yankees were the victims in 2003.

Rockies versus Phillies

Rockies FM power: 2
Matt Herges 1 (2006 2-3 4.31 ERA)
Jorge Julio 1 (2007 0-2 12.54 ERA) (the fact that he has a job is proof that I'm not the only one who believes in FM power)

Phillies FM power: 3.25
Antonio Alfonseca 2.25 (1997 WS, 2-time Marlin)
Wes Helms 1 (2006)

Cubs versus Diamondbacks

Cubs FM Power: 4
Ryan Dempster 1
Derrek Lee 1.5 (2003 WS)
Cliff Floyd 1.5 (1997 WS)

Diamondbacks FM Power: 1.75
Livan Hernandez 1.75 (1997 WS MVP)

Cubs take this one in a sweep.