Here Come the Marlins!

The Marlins lost last night along with the Phillies and the Mets which keeps the standings in place. As it is right now they're a game and a half behind the Phillies and a game behind the Mets.

Why will the Marlins win the NL East? The immediate reaction is to dismiss the question outright. They're the Marlins for crying out loud. Well, there's about 50 games left to go and they're absolutely in the thick of the race so dismissal isn't really valid. In a related note, saying that they don't have the "talent" to compete also doesn't apply at this point in the season. As of August 2nd, the Marlins are 6th in the league in Runs Scored and tied for first with the Phillies for home runs. They don't have the names, but they know how to hit. Uggla's recent slump is worrying though...

The pitching is whats been holding them back. Only the Rockies and the Pirates have given up more runs. The opening day starter this year was Mark Hendrickson with his career ERA+ of 88. Despite not making a huge move at the trade deadline the Marlins still drastically improved their bullpen, Marlin-style. Josh Johnson returned in early July from Tommy John surgery. In 2006, his last full season, he had an ERA+ of 139 in 157 innings pitched. Anibal Sanchez returned on July 31st. In his injury-shortened 2006 he had an ERA+ of 152 in 115 innings pitched. So, the Marlins get two theoretically above-average starters. This means they can move pitchers like Hendrickson to the bullpen, where they belong.

Next week is crucial as they have 3 games series against the Mets and the Phillies. At this point it's hard to see any team getting knocked out of it short of the Fish going 0-6, but it's hard to make up ground in the standings when you're behind two teams, so this is a golden opportunity to move up the board.

Former Marlin-based Playoff Predictions

The concept of Former Marlin Power was born after the 1997 post-World Series fire sale that was instigated by Wayne Huizenga for the purpose of slashing payroll and making the team easier to eventually sell. Several good players were on this team and in the following seasons many of them went on to put up impressive numbers. As a fan it was sickening to watch players such as Moises Alou and Gary Sheffield go on to have great success elsewhere while we were stuck holding the fractured pieces of a once great team. Players such as Craig Counsell later went on to help other teams win World Series. Former Marlins became a stable fixture on any successful team.
In last night's one game playoff, it only appeared that putting in Julio Jorge, Former Marlin, was a terrible idea. In reality, the Rockies were pressing their Former Marlin(FM) advantage. The only FM the Padres had was Trevor Hoffman, while the Rockies had already played FM Matt Herges. Trevor Hoffman's Former Marlins Power wasn't enough to overcome the FM power of Herges and Julio, so the Padres fell to the Rockies.
Before I break down the week 1 games, lets go through some scientifically calculated measurements.

Any player who has been on the field as a Marlin for a single play has at least a FM power of 1. This covers everyone from Mike Piazza to Kevin Millar.

Any FM who played in the post-season for a World Series winning team gets a 50% bonus to their FM power, 75% if they were the World Series MVP.

Players who have been former Marlins twice also get a 50% bonus.

Players who were Original Marlins get a 50% bonus. I believe that's just Conine and Hoffman at this point.

Angels versus the Red Sox

Angels FM Power: 1
Darren Oliver 1 (2004 2-3 6.44 ERA)

Red Sox FM Power: 3.25
Josh Beckett 1.75 (2003 WS MVP)
Mike Lowell 1.5 (2003 WS)


As you can see, the Angels don't have much of a chance. Note that although the Sox only have 2 Former Marlins, they get the most out of what they have. If things look dicey though, they're going to really miss Alex Gonzales.


Yankees versus Indians

Yankee FM Power: 1
Ron Villone 1 (2005 3-2 6.85 ERA)

Indians FM Power: 1
Joe Borowski 1 (2006 36 Saves)

This should be a very good series with the FM Power tied. I'm calling the Yankees due to unofficial extra Marlin power from having Carl Pavano on their DL as well as having Al Leiter on the payroll as a broadcaster on YES. Neither go toward the official count, but Pavano gets the WS bonus from 2003 and Leiter is both a 2-time FM and gets the WS bonus from 1997. With FM power this tight, any advantage can tip it. Also of note, this is the We Hate the Marlins Series. The Indians lost to the Marlins in the 1997 World Series and the Yankees were the victims in 2003.

Rockies versus Phillies

Rockies FM power: 2
Matt Herges 1 (2006 2-3 4.31 ERA)
Jorge Julio 1 (2007 0-2 12.54 ERA) (the fact that he has a job is proof that I'm not the only one who believes in FM power)

Phillies FM power: 3.25
Antonio Alfonseca 2.25 (1997 WS, 2-time Marlin)
Wes Helms 1 (2006)

Cubs versus Diamondbacks

Cubs FM Power: 4
Ryan Dempster 1
Derrek Lee 1.5 (2003 WS)
Cliff Floyd 1.5 (1997 WS)

Diamondbacks FM Power: 1.75
Livan Hernandez 1.75 (1997 WS MVP)


Cubs take this one in a sweep.

Immaculate Near Miss by James Shields

I randomly threw on the Marlins game today on mlb.tv. They were down 3-0 and I wanted to catch a half-inning to see if they could do some damage. Perhaps it was fate that guided my mouse as it loaded up right before the Top of the Third.

As soon as it comes back from commercial Miguel Olivo strikes out on 3 straight pitches. Well, that sucks, I thought, but a crazy possibility entered my head. Some dude named Linden was up next and he was solidly below the Mendoza line. Being the terrible hitter that he is, he too went down on three straight strikes. It was then that I started really getting excited.

Strike 1

Strike 2

......breaking ball misses low and outside.

It didn't help that the announcer said something to the effect that Shields had thrown nothing but strikes that inning. Clearly jinxed him...

Marlins Season Preview

Perhaps we're a little Marlin heavy recently, and that's just fine by me. I was really looking forward to the Deadspin Marlins season preview, but they got a damn bitter Mets fan to write it. There are certainly some negative things about the Marlins organization but I feel that the good far outweighs the bad.
The Marlins don't have typical baseball fans. We don't pack the stadium but we do watch and listen to the games. I don't want to turn this into a Defend the Marlins Fans post, but here's why actual stadium attendance is low.
1) 1997 firesale
2) 2005 firesale
3) Florida's summer weather consists of really hot broken up by thunderstorms
4) Dolphins Stadium has bad sitelines down the third and first base lines
5) Lack of a strong city identity

The Marlins are an exciting team because they're modern baseball on steroids(pun intended). They can start young, develop, win a World Series, sell off the players, rebuild, and win another World Series in the span of 6 years. It's like following a college team. The most important players for the Marlins in the past 10 years have been their scouts and Larry Beinfest. Despite all the heart-rending trades, they keep coming up with gold. The most notable example is of course that Dontrelle Willis was a "player to be named later" when they traded away then-ace Matt Clement. More recently, they got both Anibal Sanchez and 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez in exchange for Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett.

I think they have a reasonable shot of making the playoffs this season. Dontrelle Willis leads the rotation, followed by Scott Olson, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco...and some guy who will probably turn out to be awesome, because that's how these things work. If Josh Johnson is able to successfuly return by mid-season, they will have one of the best rotations in the NL. In the bullpen they have Randy Messenger and Taylor Tankersley as the always underrated Middle Relievers(or "set up men"). Tankersley was very solid last season and Messenger did well too. As mehmattski touched on, they aquired Jorge Julio to close, which I'm sure will work out fine.
On the other side of the equation, the offense is lead by Miguel Cabrera. So much has been written about how special a player he is, so I'll only add a little more. He had an off year for home runs last year and "only" hit 26, but that didn't stop him from batting in 114 runs. Also, he hit for .339. The joke at the beginning of last season was that the best hitter after Cabrera was Dontrelle Willis(who hit a disappointing .172, but still hit 3 HRs including a grand slam against the Mets). By the end of the season that was certainly not the case as Hanley Ramirez(.292 119 R 17 HRs), Dan Uggla (.282 27 HR, 90 RBI), Josh Willingham (.277 26 HRs), and Mike Jacobs (.262 20 HRs 77 RBIs) stepped it up.
Everyone is talking about a sophomore slump for the rookies, but if the Marlins keep improving they are certainly a threat to make the playoffs. I predict they'll win around 87 games and flirt with a Wild Card spot. If they make the playoffs, it'll be from their pitching and you do NOT want to bet against the Marlins in the playoffs.