2009 AFC Playoff Scenarios

One year ago, we constructed a popular post about the playoff permutations in the AFC East. This year, a logjam in the middle of the AFC leaves many meaningful games for week 17.

It is possible that five teams could finish 9-7 (Jets, Denver, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston). In this scenario, strength of conference record ranks the teams first. This eliminates the Texans and Steelers, since both teams would finish at 6-6 in conference, while the other three teams would finish 7-5. Next, record in common games applies:

Versus NE, OAK, IND, and CIN:
Jets: 4-1
Broncos: 3-2
Ravens: 1-3

This gives the Jets the #5 seed and the Ravens would take the #6 seed thanks to their victory over the Broncos.

A different, crazier, possibility exists. With one week to play, it is possible that EIGHT AFC teams can finish at a mediocre 8-8, which in addition to giving ex-commisioner (and lover of parity) Paul Tagliabue a spring in his step, it brings upon the NFL the full power of the sometimes mysterious NFL Tiebreaking procedures. So what if the stars align and all eight teams finish at 8-8?

The key is that ties within divisions are broken first, with only one team per division advancing:

Within Division:
East: Mia > NYJ (head2head)
North: Bal > Pit (Division record)
West: Den
South: Jax (3-way h2h):
Jax 3-1 vs Hou, Ten
Ten 2-2 vs Hou, Jax
Hou 1-3 vs Ten, Jax

In a multi-team tiebreaker, a head to head sweep would prevail but the teams did not all play each other. Baltimore's win over Denver is irrelevant now.

This lands with the games-within-conference tiebreaker, and an 8-8 Jacksonville would have 7 wins in conference, so they're in.
The remaining three teams would be 6-6 in conference.
The next tiebreaker is record in common games (minimum four), and each team has played NE, PIT, IND, and SD:

Denver 2-3
Baltimore 2-3
Miami 2-3

This, troublesomely, leaves each team at 2-3, causing us to enter the magical land of Strength of Victory. Luckily, in the Everyone 8-8 Scenario, many games have been decided for us.

Denver beat: CIN (11), CLE (4), OAK (6), DAL (10, Play PHI), NE (11), SD (12, Play WAS), NYG (8, Play MIN), KC (4)
Ravens beat: KC (4), SD (12, Play WAS) , CLE (4), DEN (8), CLE (4), PIT (8), DET (2, Play CHI), CHI (5, play MIN and DET)
Miami beat: BUF (5, Play IND), NYJ (8), NYJ (8), TB (3, Play ATL), CAR (7, Play NO), NE (11), JAX (8), PIT (8)

So the games we would know for sure:

DEN: 66
BAL: 47
MIA: 58

The superior record of teams the Broncos have beaten is insurmountable, and so the Broncos would get the final playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the wins by the Patriots (over Houston) and Bengals (over the Jets) would put them both at 11-5 and at 8-4 in the conference. Moving on to record in common games against the Jets, Ravens, Texans, and Broncos:

NE: 3-2
CIN: 3-2
Which leaves Strength of Victory:

NE beat: NYJ (8), BAL (8), HOU (8), BUF (5, play IND), ATL (3, play TB), TEN (8), TB (3, play ATL), MIA (8), CAR (7, play NO), BUF (5, play IND), JAX (8) (71 wins)
CIN beat: NYJ (8), BAL (8), BAL (8), PIT (8), GB (10, play ARI), CLE (4), CHI (5, play MIN and DET), PIT (8), CLE (4), DET (2, Play CHI), KC (4) (69 wins)

So New England would have multiple ways to increase its lead over Cincinnati in the Strength of Victory department next week, while the Bengals will have to wait for everything to fall into place in order to grab the 3rd seed.


In summary, the Great Mediocrity Scenario of 2009 would create the following playoff matchups:

1. Indianapolis (bye)
2. San Diego (bye)
3. New England vs 6. Denver
4. Cincinnati vs 5. Jacksonville

Feel free to point out any errors I have made in the comments.

Update 1: Fixed Ravens-Broncos error pointed out in the comments. I blame NFL.com's difficult to read schedule page...

Chad Pennington: Really?

Jeffri Chadiha is wrong

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=chadiha_jeffri&id=3498223

The idea of this list is to take the top 10 players who are the most irreplaceable on their teams. The answer for number 1 is simple: Peyton Manning. Now, Tom Brady may go down as one of the best, if not the best, quarterback in history, and this is coming from a teal-and-orange-bleeding Dan Marino fan. The list isn't about the best player though, it's the most indispensable.

If Tom Brady goes down, the Pats still have their defense, they still have their absurd offensive line, and they still have Randy Moss. The same Randy Moss that made Daunte Culpepper look like a good quarterback. They're obviously not as good without Brady, but they're still a lock for the playoffs in the weak AFC East.

Peyton Manning isn't just the quarterback of the Colts, he's pretty much the offensive coordinator as well. Peyton Manning runs the offense like he's playing Madden. The play that he came to the line with is merely a suggestion. He takes a look at what the defense is throwing at him, turns his head, waves his arms around, and chooses a play to beat that defensive scheme. If Peyton goes down, Tony Dungy won't, nor should he, allow Jim Sorgi to run the offense. The Colts would go from one of the most dynamic offensive teams to another team that has the play called in from the sideline.

T.O. is a joke at number 3. He was tied for 20th in the league for receiving yards per game last season. The Cowboys are still very good without T.O.

Looking down the list, with a Defensive Tackle in 6th, I can only imagine that this article is meant as some sort of comment or blog bait meant to annoy people and argue about why he's wrong. Well, I bit.

It begins again

The intensity of the NFL season builds throughout the regular season, becomes white hot in the playoffs, and peaks with the Super Bowl. However, the Monday after Super Bowl Sunday begins a period of emptiness.

In most sports the season ends at different times for different people. Typically in baseball, Kansas City's fans stop caring about the season well before the season ends for Yankee fans. In football, everyone watches the championship game, as opposed to sports such as baseball and basketball where only the fans of the teams involved and a percentage of casual fans watch. Columnists talk about certain World Series match-ups being good for ratings. Nobody worries about the Super Bowl ratings being low because it involves small market teams.

In football, the season ends the same day for everyone. Once the playoffs are over, the long drought begins. Sure, there's the Pro Bowl, but nobody cares about that. Within a few months though, signs of the dawn of the new season begin to appear. Teams start talking to free agents. Players are drafted. Draft picks start signing(or don't). Mini-camps begin. Training camp begins. All these events happen at the back of the collective sports consciousness, but one event is the trumpet call that signals the football drought is almost over, today's Hall of Fame Induction.

Tomorrow is the Hall of Fame Game. The New Orleans Saints play the Pittsburgh Steelers on a high school field in Canton Ohio. Sure, the starters might only play a quarter, but this signals the beginning of preseason, and therefore the beginning of Football Season. Sundays begin their transition from the least important day of the week to Gameday.

Next week, all the other teams(including the Unstoppable Miami Dolphins) play their first preseason game. Early favorite teams and players will emerge. Starters will start to play more and more of the games, and soon enough it'll be September 6th and the regular season will begin once more.

Football season is here.