Yesterday evening I was packing and decided to throw on a baseball game as background noise. Since the Yankees were playing on the West Coast, I went for the Arizona-Tampa Bay contest. I turned off the game in the third inning, after Edwin Jackson weaseled his way out of a bases-loaded jam. I thought nothing of the game until I saw on Baseball Tonight that he had thrown a no-hitter! My first thought was, is this the worst no-hitter of all time?
Jackson walked eight batters in the game, and threw a career-high 149 pitches, just 79 of them for strikes. At one point in the third inning, the Win Probability actually favored Tampa Bay, thanks to Jackson walking the bases loaded! With two outs in the ninth, Jackson walked pinch hitter Willy Aybar on four pitches, which was Aybar's seventh walk of the season. No doubt about it, Jackson pitched rather poorly and still picked up the no-no. Is it possible to have a worse no hitter than Jackson?
First of all, some ground rules: Major League Baseball defines a no-hitter as a "a game in which a pitcher, or pitchers, gives up no hits while pitching at least nine innings. A pitcher may give up a run or runs so long as he pitches nine innings or more and does not give up a hit."
This excludes some rather infamous no-hit performances, such as this one by Andy Hawkins, who allowed four (unearned) runs in a 4-0 loss while pitching for the hapless 1990 Yankees. In a baseball-reference play index search, I asked for games of 9 IP or more since 1920 with zero hits. I then sorted this list by ascending Game Score, a measure invented by Bill James to assign a single number to a starting pitchers' performance. The best nine-inning performance since 1920, according to Game Score, is Kerry Wood's 20K game in 1998, with a score of 105. The measure is very results-oriented, since it places high value on the number of innings pitched and the number of runs-- shutouts are practically guaranteed to be above 80.
Click the link for the results, which show Jackson's game last night to be the fourth-worst no-hitter on record, in Game Score. Three games tied with a game score one unit worse:
George Culver, July 29, 1968 Pitching for the Reds, his second of what would be five teams in the pre-free agency era, Culver was nothing short of mediocre in this game, for someone who pitched a no-hitter. He walked four in the game, but faced 34 batters, one of the extra men (Dick Allen) getting aboard thanks to a throwing error by third baseman Tony Perez, and reaching second on another error by shortstop Woody Woodward on the same play. Allen then reached third base on a groundout and scored on a sac-fly by Cookie Rojas.
Culver allowed another unearned baserunner in the third inning, with Phillies' starter Chris Short reaching on Catchers Interference by Pat Corrales. Culver then retired eleven straight before walking two men with two outs in the sixth, needing a strikeout to get out of that jam. Culver's final two baserunners got on via walk to open the eighth inning, but Culver induced some ground balls to get out of that one, and breezed through the ninth for the no-hitter.
Bill James calculated how likely it was for each pitcher to have thrown a no-hitter, and George Culver came out as one of the ten men least likely to have a no-no.
Ken Holtzman- August 19, 1969. Of the three no-hitters with a Game Score of 84, Holtzman's seems the most impressive. Facing Phil Neikro and staked to a 3-0 lead after the first inning, Holtzman walked just three in his no-hitter. The reason this game has such a low game score is that Holtzman struck out precisely zero hitters! Not exactly Nolan Ryan, Holtzman struck out just 5.0 per nine innings in his career, despite playing in an extremely pitcher-friendly era. Only one other no-hitter since 1920 has featured zero strikeouts, by Sad Sam Jones in 1923.
Sabermetrics has taught us in the Gospel of Three True Outcomes; that a pitcher can only (really) control three results of an at bat: a strikeout, a walk, and a home run. There are fine tunings in there, such as GB/FB rate, and his own fielding ability, but once the ball is put in play, a lot is left up to his defense. On that day in 1969, the Cubs' defense shined, and Holtzman never allowed more than one baserunner in an inning. Twelve groundouts, twelve flyouts, and three pop-outs formed an even split among the batted balls in this game. Interestingly, while giving up fly-balls tends to influence home-run rate and therefore is bad for the overall success of a pitcher, if one wants to pitch a no-hitter, a flyball is far more likely to turn into an out.
The shimmering defense was on display no finer than on the last out of the seventh inning, in which outfielder Billy Williams climbed the ivy at Wrigley to pluck a home run away from Henry Aaron. Holtzman wrote in Chicago Cubs: Memorable Stories of Cubs Baseball that the home fans were reminding him that he had a no-hitter every inning following the third (so much for jinxes!) Holtzman would go on to throw another no-hitter two years later for the Cubs, and was later elected to the Jewish Sports Hall of Fame.
Joe Cowley, September 19, 1986 From the box-score, this is my vote for the worst official no-hitter on record. Cowley registered seven walks (and eight strikeouts), and among the 145 no-hitters on record with Game Scores below 100, Cowley's is only one of two in which the no-no-man gave up an earned run. Much like Jackson, Cowley walked the bases loaded to start the sixth, and then gave up three straight fly balls, the second of which scored Reggie Jackson. Cowley also had two men on in the third, and like Jackson walked a man in the ninth, though this runner was erased on the game-ending double play.
In fact, Cowley threw the worst no-hiter of all time, and then never won another big league game. He lost his next six decisions and was out of baseball within a year of this game. Hopefully, Edwin Jackson can avoid this same fate.
Showing posts with label Rare Events. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rare Events. Show all posts
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Useless Sports: The Extra Point
It's been a while since I've been motivated to post anything here at Immaculate Inning... the way baseball season ended for this Yankees fan, plus my first real semester of graduate school that included actual work to do are my excuses. For the both of you who still check this site, I've got a treat for you today. We're going to talk about one of the most useless features of modern sport: the extra-point.
Sports historians tell us that the Point After Try (or PAT) has its roots in the precursor to American football- rugby. A "try"-- placing the ball in the end zone-- did not score any points for the team, but triggered a kicking attempt parallel to the spot in the end zone where the ball was placed. When touchdowns became more important in American football the point totals were adjusted, but the basic principle is that a TD is worth twice a FG... unless of course you make the PAT.
Up until the 1980s, the last part of the equation was not a sure thing, as the graph found here shows. However, the percentage of missed extra-points after 1984 (when defenders were banned from taking running leaps at the line of scrimmage) has never exceeded 5%; the last time it exceeded even 2% was the 1993 season. In 2008, the percentage is staggering: up to and including Thursday's Bears-Saints game, there have been 957 extra-point attempts, and only four missed attempts. The 99.6% success rate is the best in the history of football, surpassing the 99.2% rate in 2004. It's possible that we may be confusing increased ability with statistical noise, but that has not stopped other bloggers from calling for a modification of the Point After Try.
Because we at the Immaculate Inning like to champion the rare event, let us look at the four ignoble kickers who have missed this year.
Taylor Mehlhaff, New Orleans Saints When Martin Grammatica went down to injury on October 8, the Saints re-signed Mehlhaff the man Gramatica defeated in training camp. The left-footed rookie sixth-round pick out of Wisconsin played just three weeks for the Saints, making two out of three field goal attempts, and missing the first extra point of the 2008 season. The failure made Mehlhaff famous on two continents, as the miss came in an October 27 game against the Chargers played in London. As you can (kind of) see in this video, Drew Brees had just completed a 12 yard TD pass when Mehlhaff lined up for the point-after, and you can hear in the video the result- clank! Even the American-football naive fans at Wembley had mind enough to boo his performance. So, too, did the Saints, who cut Mehlhaff two days later.
It was suggested in the ESPN-comments of that article that the Saints had no confidence in Mehlhaff to begin with, and would "frequently" go for it on fourth down. The Saints did go for it twice on fourth down at Wembley, from the 1 yard line (not suspicious) and another time on 4th and 2 on the Chargers' 14 (quite suspicious). The previous week, the Saints were held to only 7 points and Mehlhaff did not attempt an field goal; they went for it on a 4th-and-one from the Carolina 37, which is no-man's land for FGs for anyone. The fourth-quarter failed conversion on a 4th and 2 from the Carolina 3 yard also makes sense as the Saints were down by twenty points at the time. In his first game against the Raiders, Mehlhaff missed his first attempt (31 yards), made his second (44 yards), and the Saints never went for it on fourth down. As always, don't trust ESPN commenters, but it may be that the extra point did spell doom for Mehlhaff; making PATs is important for a Saints team that leads the NFL in touchdowns scored.
Jason Hanson, Detroit Lions By far the most experienced kicker of the four, Hanson has 16 years kicking in the NFL, and has made 98.5% of his extra points. This season, he was unlucky November 2 in Chicago, under some pretty terrible conditions. The muddy field was causing players to slip around all day, and the Lions struck for the first time in the second quarter on a Kevin Smith 1 yard TD run. Hanson slipped and fell in the mud during his PAT attempt, rose to his feet and attempted to complete the try, but it was blocked by Alex Brown. The play became immensely important later in the game, as the Lions got the ball back with 1:04 to go and 87 yards to make up a 27-23 Bears lead. Had Hanson completed his extra point, the Lions could have tied with a field goal.
Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers We didn't have to wait long for the next missed PAT. The seven year NFL veteran missed an extra-point in Washington on November 3. The Steelers had scored right before halftime on a 1-yd QB sneak by Ben Roethlisberger, who injured his arm on the play. Led by backup Byron Leftwich, the Steelers rallied again for a big drive to open up the third quarter, capped by a 1-yard TD run by Willie Parker. According to the play-by-play, Reed's PAT was wide left. This was a significant event for Reed, who had not missed a PAT since 2003, his sophormore season. Weather did not seem to be a factor; the NFL's gamebook reported 51˚F and no wind that day. Teams typically have their backup QB receving the snap on field goal attempts- was there a switch made when Leftwich entered the game? No, because Reed's holder all day was punter Mitch Berger. However, this ESPN fantasy football page notes that Berger's hold was bad. It is unknown whether Berger's botched hold has anything to do with the fact he was released following the game. He's back with the Steelers now though after four weeks as a free agent, so I guess there's not that many hard feelings.
Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs Also a seven-year NFL veteran, Bryant missed a point after last week at Carolina. Jeff Garcia had just completed a 15 yard pass to Antiono Bryant (no relation) to bring the Bucs within a touchdown at 31-23 with under two and a half minutes to go. The kicker who two years ago knocked through the third-longest field goal in NFL history (62 yards) lined up for the point-after. Julius Peppers busted through the line and blocked the kick (his seventh since entering the league in 2002, second most over this span). Bryant's subsequent onsides-kick attempt was also not successful, and Carolina went on to win the game.
So, that's it on missed PATs in the 2008 NFL season. Just nine were missed all of last year, and since 2003 (the season I grew tired of copy-pasting PAT stats) there have been 6,520 PATs, of which 6456 were made, for a grand average of 99.018% over the last five-plus seasons. So I ask, any NFL fans out there, what is the purpose of retaining the extra point? Other than tradition, what good does it do the game to have an event which is successful over 99% of the time? I can't think of a single scoreboard-impacting event in American sports that has anywhere near a 99% success rate; the closest may be the penalty kick in soccer, but that's another topic. Meanwhile, while typically you don't see defenses going all-out on the PAT unless there is something at stake, there is still the significant risk for injury to the very large men in that line of scrimmage.
On the other blogs that have discussed this, one of the objections to eliminating point-afters was that it would renew the importance of the field goal. While I don't think that's a bad thing, I think that it could just be that a touchdown is worth 7 points unless a team wants to make it 8 with a conversion attempt. Making the team play the same from-scrimmage football that got them to the end zone seems a much fairer way of handing out extra-points. And at a current rate of just 50%, the two-point conversion is much less of a sure thing.
As it stands, at the professional level, the point after try is the most worthless waste of time in modern sports.
Sports historians tell us that the Point After Try (or PAT) has its roots in the precursor to American football- rugby. A "try"-- placing the ball in the end zone-- did not score any points for the team, but triggered a kicking attempt parallel to the spot in the end zone where the ball was placed. When touchdowns became more important in American football the point totals were adjusted, but the basic principle is that a TD is worth twice a FG... unless of course you make the PAT.
Up until the 1980s, the last part of the equation was not a sure thing, as the graph found here shows. However, the percentage of missed extra-points after 1984 (when defenders were banned from taking running leaps at the line of scrimmage) has never exceeded 5%; the last time it exceeded even 2% was the 1993 season. In 2008, the percentage is staggering: up to and including Thursday's Bears-Saints game, there have been 957 extra-point attempts, and only four missed attempts. The 99.6% success rate is the best in the history of football, surpassing the 99.2% rate in 2004. It's possible that we may be confusing increased ability with statistical noise, but that has not stopped other bloggers from calling for a modification of the Point After Try.
Because we at the Immaculate Inning like to champion the rare event, let us look at the four ignoble kickers who have missed this year.
Taylor Mehlhaff, New Orleans Saints When Martin Grammatica went down to injury on October 8, the Saints re-signed Mehlhaff the man Gramatica defeated in training camp. The left-footed rookie sixth-round pick out of Wisconsin played just three weeks for the Saints, making two out of three field goal attempts, and missing the first extra point of the 2008 season. The failure made Mehlhaff famous on two continents, as the miss came in an October 27 game against the Chargers played in London. As you can (kind of) see in this video, Drew Brees had just completed a 12 yard TD pass when Mehlhaff lined up for the point-after, and you can hear in the video the result- clank! Even the American-football naive fans at Wembley had mind enough to boo his performance. So, too, did the Saints, who cut Mehlhaff two days later.
It was suggested in the ESPN-comments of that article that the Saints had no confidence in Mehlhaff to begin with, and would "frequently" go for it on fourth down. The Saints did go for it twice on fourth down at Wembley, from the 1 yard line (not suspicious) and another time on 4th and 2 on the Chargers' 14 (quite suspicious). The previous week, the Saints were held to only 7 points and Mehlhaff did not attempt an field goal; they went for it on a 4th-and-one from the Carolina 37, which is no-man's land for FGs for anyone. The fourth-quarter failed conversion on a 4th and 2 from the Carolina 3 yard also makes sense as the Saints were down by twenty points at the time. In his first game against the Raiders, Mehlhaff missed his first attempt (31 yards), made his second (44 yards), and the Saints never went for it on fourth down. As always, don't trust ESPN commenters, but it may be that the extra point did spell doom for Mehlhaff; making PATs is important for a Saints team that leads the NFL in touchdowns scored.
Jason Hanson, Detroit Lions By far the most experienced kicker of the four, Hanson has 16 years kicking in the NFL, and has made 98.5% of his extra points. This season, he was unlucky November 2 in Chicago, under some pretty terrible conditions. The muddy field was causing players to slip around all day, and the Lions struck for the first time in the second quarter on a Kevin Smith 1 yard TD run. Hanson slipped and fell in the mud during his PAT attempt, rose to his feet and attempted to complete the try, but it was blocked by Alex Brown. The play became immensely important later in the game, as the Lions got the ball back with 1:04 to go and 87 yards to make up a 27-23 Bears lead. Had Hanson completed his extra point, the Lions could have tied with a field goal.
Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers We didn't have to wait long for the next missed PAT. The seven year NFL veteran missed an extra-point in Washington on November 3. The Steelers had scored right before halftime on a 1-yd QB sneak by Ben Roethlisberger, who injured his arm on the play. Led by backup Byron Leftwich, the Steelers rallied again for a big drive to open up the third quarter, capped by a 1-yard TD run by Willie Parker. According to the play-by-play, Reed's PAT was wide left. This was a significant event for Reed, who had not missed a PAT since 2003, his sophormore season. Weather did not seem to be a factor; the NFL's gamebook reported 51˚F and no wind that day. Teams typically have their backup QB receving the snap on field goal attempts- was there a switch made when Leftwich entered the game? No, because Reed's holder all day was punter Mitch Berger. However, this ESPN fantasy football page notes that Berger's hold was bad. It is unknown whether Berger's botched hold has anything to do with the fact he was released following the game. He's back with the Steelers now though after four weeks as a free agent, so I guess there's not that many hard feelings.
Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs Also a seven-year NFL veteran, Bryant missed a point after last week at Carolina. Jeff Garcia had just completed a 15 yard pass to Antiono Bryant (no relation) to bring the Bucs within a touchdown at 31-23 with under two and a half minutes to go. The kicker who two years ago knocked through the third-longest field goal in NFL history (62 yards) lined up for the point-after. Julius Peppers busted through the line and blocked the kick (his seventh since entering the league in 2002, second most over this span). Bryant's subsequent onsides-kick attempt was also not successful, and Carolina went on to win the game.
So, that's it on missed PATs in the 2008 NFL season. Just nine were missed all of last year, and since 2003 (the season I grew tired of copy-pasting PAT stats) there have been 6,520 PATs, of which 6456 were made, for a grand average of 99.018% over the last five-plus seasons. So I ask, any NFL fans out there, what is the purpose of retaining the extra point? Other than tradition, what good does it do the game to have an event which is successful over 99% of the time? I can't think of a single scoreboard-impacting event in American sports that has anywhere near a 99% success rate; the closest may be the penalty kick in soccer, but that's another topic. Meanwhile, while typically you don't see defenses going all-out on the PAT unless there is something at stake, there is still the significant risk for injury to the very large men in that line of scrimmage.
On the other blogs that have discussed this, one of the objections to eliminating point-afters was that it would renew the importance of the field goal. While I don't think that's a bad thing, I think that it could just be that a touchdown is worth 7 points unless a team wants to make it 8 with a conversion attempt. Making the team play the same from-scrimmage football that got them to the end zone seems a much fairer way of handing out extra-points. And at a current rate of just 50%, the two-point conversion is much less of a sure thing.
As it stands, at the professional level, the point after try is the most worthless waste of time in modern sports.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Sabathia Victim of Obsolete Scoring System
This afternoon, Milwaukee Brewers' ace CC "Don't Put No Periods" Sabathia threw an absolute gem. A complete game shutout, giving up just one hit, with eleven strikeouts and just three walks-- a great game in this day of relief pitchers. His Game Score of 96 is the best of the season, beating even John Lester's no-hitter. And yet, the Brewers will be appealing the judgment of the game, because they feel Sabathia should have gotten the no-no. The lone hit came in the sixth inning, when Andy LaRoche hit a dribbler back to the mound. Sabathia picked up the ball, was about to fire to first, and dropped it. Bob Webb, veteran official scorer, immediately scored it a hit, explaining that LaRoche was 2/3 up the baseline before Sabathia even bent over. The Brewers think Sabathia was robbed.
Before we get to my take on it, let's run through a truly awful paragraph in the AP story:
"Despite the Brewers' protests, the play in question is routinely called
a hit and fielders often get angry when they are called for errors on
easier plays."
This is my first, and most important point: Errors are stupid. I recently went to a baseball game and had to explain my favorite sport to a number of Chinese students who were watching the game for the first time. Despite the language barrier they were able to pick up the vague idea of the game. But when they heard my explanation in response to "What does the E mean on the scoreboard," they looked at me funny. Now, in the progress of an individual game, it may make sense to assign blame for a particular play, in the process of deciding why an out was not made.
What bothers me is that errors are used in two ways that hide the true value of players. Most directly, they affect the defender, whose number of errors has almost no bearing on the number of outs he actually does make. While advanced fielding metrics are far from perfect, they at least make an effort at quantifying the level of skill in out-making a defender has. Errors, on the other hand, are arbitrarily decided by some dude in a booth. Second of all, the "earned-run" is a bastard child of the error, and has led talent evaluaters astray in believing that some runs are more important than others, when judging a pitcher. Ok, rant over, let's move on to the next sentence:
"The Associated Press polled eight writers who have
reported on the majors for 10 years or more, and six would have called
it a hit."
Great job, Associated Press! Way to immediately poll a bunch of sportswriters about what an official scorer should have done. I don't care if they polled eight construction workers who have watched baseball for 10 years or more, they would have been equally qualified to speculate about a completely different profession whose primary function is to make judgment calls on baseball games. Two of these judgments are errors and wins, which are both stupid, primarily because they are subjective. Still, Bob Webb's job is to judge baseball games, and the baseball writer's job is to write about baseball games. Why are these somehow overlapping, to the AP?
"Also, Sabathia pitched with almost no pressure with a multiple-run lead
in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, which wouldn't have been the
case if he had a no-hitter going and every late-innings pitch would
have been critical."
Ah, clutchitudiness. Or something similar, I suppose. Sabathia shouldn't be credited with a no-hitter because if he knew he were pitching a no-hitter, the whole rest of the game would have changed, somehow! Sabathia would be pressing, or some other silly notion. Well, what if, after the sixth inning, Ryan Braun assured Sabathia that he was going to make a big stink about that error the rest of the game? Then, Sabathia would be under pressure to continue to hold the Pirates to just one hit, so they could get on with the protesting! Isn't that the same amount of pressure?
That was just about the dumbest three consecutive sentences I've ever read from the Associated Press. I guess they all must have gone to UNC journalism school.... Last month, the Immaculate Inning recognized those pitchers who had been "robbed by their defense," losing a perfect game because of an error. It's too bad that Baseball-reference.com doesn't have a search feature for "plays that should have been errors but weren't." But, there have been 48 one-hitters since 2000. If just a fraction of them featured a hit that should have been called an error, how many more no-hitters would that add to the annals of baseball?
In the earlier post, I dismissed a few near-perfect games because the pitcher himself was responsible for the lone baserunner, and this case may. Even if the hit were changed to an error, the onus would be on Sabathia. It brings up an interesting point; if you, the pitcher, are in a no-hitter, and you think that someone may get an infield hit, do you drop the ball on purpose? Do you fling it into the stands? One does not have to go far to find precedent for a no-hitter featuring an error by the pitcher-- John Lester had an error in his no-hitter earlier this year. But, the error was on a pickoff throw and did not allow a baserunner.
The last time a no-hitter featured a runner reaching on an error was for Anibal Sanchez of the Marlins on September 6, 2006. In the fifth inning, Carlos Quentin reached on a throwing error by Miguel Cabrera. Before that, it was Cal Ripken, Jr reaching on a throwing error by Shea Hillenbrand in the second inning of Hideo Nomo's no-hitter for the Red Sox in 2001. Kirk Gibson dropped a fly ball in the fifth inning of Bret Saberhagen's no-hitter in 1991. That last one is included in this article by Baseball Digest recording questionable no-hitters in baseball history. Apparently the ball just tipped the top of Gibson's glove as he leaped for the liner off the bat Dan Pasqua. Initially called a hit, it was later changed to an error by the official scorer. Phil Rizzuto remembered a similar occurance in a no-hitter by Virgil Trucks in 1958.
In all, I think what this demonstrates is the power of the official scorer, regarding baseball immortality. A no-hitter is a big deal, and it's a shame that remembering such an event is dependent not upon the pitcher responsible, but upon a man in a booth high above the field. Sabathia is a great pitcher and with his ability to get deep into games, he'll certainly have another chance at an official no-hitter. Unless, of course, the Brewers make his arm fall off trying to get their money's worth on their half-season rental....
Before we get to my take on it, let's run through a truly awful paragraph in the AP story:
"Despite the Brewers' protests, the play in question is routinely called
a hit and fielders often get angry when they are called for errors on
easier plays."
This is my first, and most important point: Errors are stupid. I recently went to a baseball game and had to explain my favorite sport to a number of Chinese students who were watching the game for the first time. Despite the language barrier they were able to pick up the vague idea of the game. But when they heard my explanation in response to "What does the E mean on the scoreboard," they looked at me funny. Now, in the progress of an individual game, it may make sense to assign blame for a particular play, in the process of deciding why an out was not made.
What bothers me is that errors are used in two ways that hide the true value of players. Most directly, they affect the defender, whose number of errors has almost no bearing on the number of outs he actually does make. While advanced fielding metrics are far from perfect, they at least make an effort at quantifying the level of skill in out-making a defender has. Errors, on the other hand, are arbitrarily decided by some dude in a booth. Second of all, the "earned-run" is a bastard child of the error, and has led talent evaluaters astray in believing that some runs are more important than others, when judging a pitcher. Ok, rant over, let's move on to the next sentence:
"The Associated Press polled eight writers who have
reported on the majors for 10 years or more, and six would have called
it a hit."
Great job, Associated Press! Way to immediately poll a bunch of sportswriters about what an official scorer should have done. I don't care if they polled eight construction workers who have watched baseball for 10 years or more, they would have been equally qualified to speculate about a completely different profession whose primary function is to make judgment calls on baseball games. Two of these judgments are errors and wins, which are both stupid, primarily because they are subjective. Still, Bob Webb's job is to judge baseball games, and the baseball writer's job is to write about baseball games. Why are these somehow overlapping, to the AP?
"Also, Sabathia pitched with almost no pressure with a multiple-run lead
in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, which wouldn't have been the
case if he had a no-hitter going and every late-innings pitch would
have been critical."
Ah, clutchitudiness. Or something similar, I suppose. Sabathia shouldn't be credited with a no-hitter because if he knew he were pitching a no-hitter, the whole rest of the game would have changed, somehow! Sabathia would be pressing, or some other silly notion. Well, what if, after the sixth inning, Ryan Braun assured Sabathia that he was going to make a big stink about that error the rest of the game? Then, Sabathia would be under pressure to continue to hold the Pirates to just one hit, so they could get on with the protesting! Isn't that the same amount of pressure?
That was just about the dumbest three consecutive sentences I've ever read from the Associated Press. I guess they all must have gone to UNC journalism school.... Last month, the Immaculate Inning recognized those pitchers who had been "robbed by their defense," losing a perfect game because of an error. It's too bad that Baseball-reference.com doesn't have a search feature for "plays that should have been errors but weren't." But, there have been 48 one-hitters since 2000. If just a fraction of them featured a hit that should have been called an error, how many more no-hitters would that add to the annals of baseball?
In the earlier post, I dismissed a few near-perfect games because the pitcher himself was responsible for the lone baserunner, and this case may. Even if the hit were changed to an error, the onus would be on Sabathia. It brings up an interesting point; if you, the pitcher, are in a no-hitter, and you think that someone may get an infield hit, do you drop the ball on purpose? Do you fling it into the stands? One does not have to go far to find precedent for a no-hitter featuring an error by the pitcher-- John Lester had an error in his no-hitter earlier this year. But, the error was on a pickoff throw and did not allow a baserunner.
The last time a no-hitter featured a runner reaching on an error was for Anibal Sanchez of the Marlins on September 6, 2006. In the fifth inning, Carlos Quentin reached on a throwing error by Miguel Cabrera. Before that, it was Cal Ripken, Jr reaching on a throwing error by Shea Hillenbrand in the second inning of Hideo Nomo's no-hitter for the Red Sox in 2001. Kirk Gibson dropped a fly ball in the fifth inning of Bret Saberhagen's no-hitter in 1991. That last one is included in this article by Baseball Digest recording questionable no-hitters in baseball history. Apparently the ball just tipped the top of Gibson's glove as he leaped for the liner off the bat Dan Pasqua. Initially called a hit, it was later changed to an error by the official scorer. Phil Rizzuto remembered a similar occurance in a no-hitter by Virgil Trucks in 1958.
In all, I think what this demonstrates is the power of the official scorer, regarding baseball immortality. A no-hitter is a big deal, and it's a shame that remembering such an event is dependent not upon the pitcher responsible, but upon a man in a booth high above the field. Sabathia is a great pitcher and with his ability to get deep into games, he'll certainly have another chance at an official no-hitter. Unless, of course, the Brewers make his arm fall off trying to get their money's worth on their half-season rental....
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
The Quest for Quarter-Million
I was making my daily visit to baseball-reference.com when I noticed a new feature on the main page: an all-time major league home run tracker. Would you believe that through the games of August 25, 2008, there have been 249,650 home runs hit since 1876? Personally I found that number to be a bit low, but I suppose when you're dealing with numbers that large, they can be deceiving. Let's take a look at the history of the home run, and see if we can't project where and when the historic homer might come.
According to the SABR Encyclopedia, the first major league home run was hit on May 2, 1876 by second baseman Ross Barnes of the Chicago White Stockings. Barnes hit just two home runs while playing in the National League; he had played for Boston in the amateur National Association (the precursor to the NL) prior to 1876. The inaugral home run came off of Cherokee Fischer of Cincinnati in the fifth inning. This was the only full season in which Fischer appeared in the NL, he threw 229.3 innings as the Reds' backup pitcher. The home-run came in the fourth game of the season for Chicago; by my count this was the eleventh league game of the season. Just forty homers came from the National League's first season, led by George Hall with five.
Most fans are familiar with the home run environment until Babe Ruth's uppercut swing changed baseball in the 1920s. Indeed, it was not until after the beginning of the American League that the 10,000th home run was hit, in 1903. (Baseball-Reference estimated which home run was hit based on the start of game times and the inning in which they were hit.) It was Joe Tinker, of Tinker-Evers-Chance fame, that knocked a homer off the Cardinals' Mordecai Brown in he 8th inning of a game on September 5. Interestingly, the early seasons of the 20th century saw a sharp decline in home runs. To illustrate this, I've plotted the first fifty years of the NL with respect to At Bats per Home Run:

As we've covered here before, there was a major rules change in the National League at the turn of the century; for the first time, a foul ball counted as a strike. The result was a large jump in strikeouts and a huge drop in total offense, home runs included. For comparison, the 1902 American League saw 147 at bats between home runs, while the National League averaged more than double-- 389 AB/HR. The following year, while the American League tried out the new foul rule experimentally, the numbers were much closer: 203 AB/HR for the AL and 251 AB/HR in the NL. The American League continued to show a slightly higher home run rate throughout the Dead Ball Era. One thing that's interesting is that the precipitous drop in HR rate occured in both leagues around the time Babe Ruth started playing first time. This suggests that although Ruth was certainly transcendent, his approach was not unique in baseball at the time.
It was around this time that Wally Pipp hit the 20,000th ML home run, off of the Senators' Joe Martina in the eighth inning on May 3, 1924. With the Live Ball Era in effect, each of the next ten thousand home runs took eight years, bringing us to the 50,000th home run, hit on June 30, 1948. It was the Giants' Johnny Mize, knocking one off of the Braves' Bill Voiselle in the sixth inning. The Pitchers' Heaven mini-period interviened and slowed homer rates a bit in the 1960s, but with the lowering of the mound in 1969, combined with expansion, baseball was primed for its 100,000th home run.
Entering play on April 30, 1970, the number was very close to 100K, and with 22 homers hit that day, the best estimate is that Atlanta Braves catcher Hal King hit the historic round-tripper in the second inning of a game against the Cubs. The Braves started their game at 8 PM and actually had a home run in the first, by Rico Carty. Fifteen batters came to the plate before King, and the entire game took just 2:33, so perhaps his homer was hit somewhere between 8:30 and 8:45. Five homers were in this game, two by Carty, and one by someone you may have heard of-- Hank Aaron. Unfortunately, the start time of the other games that day are unavailable, so it is unclear how close we came to the milestone being held by one of the best ever.
The second hundred-thousand home runs took considerably less than 90 years, it would come in 1999, in an interleague game. According to baseball-reference, it was in this game, when the Yankees' Paul O'Neill hit one deep to right centerfield, clearing the wall at Dolphins Stadium to lead off the top of the fourth inning. Livan Hernandez was the victim, and also gave up two other homers in the game. Incredibly, forty-eight home runs were hit on June 12, 1999, eleven of which came in day games (the Marlins-Yankees game started at 7:06 EDT). There were a number of early home runs in the night-games, but b-r.com feels that O'Neill's home run is the milestone.
This year, home runs have fallen from their incredible pace in the late-1990s. In 2007, the AL hit homers at a rate of 33.1 AB/HR, and the NL at 34.8 AB/HR. The rates are similar this season, and work out to almost exactly one per game for each team. So with 350 home runs to go for a quarter-million, will the milestone be passed this season? Through August 25, teams have played 3,928 games of the scheduled 4,860 (remember, I'm counting each contest twice, once for each team playing). With about 932 games left to play, it's almost certain that the milestone will fall sometime in September. Can we pinpoint this?
Based on the number of scheduled games according to mlb.com, there will be 342 games played between August 26 and September 7. If the number of homers continues at an average rate, it's likely that the milestone will occur sometime that Sunday afternoon. If that's the case, count on Immaculate Inning to do a liveblog of the events of the day, remote in hand. (Of course, with my luck it will happen on Fox Blackout Day...)
In the meantime, follow along with the Quarter Million Homer Widget, now featured in the sidebar.
According to the SABR Encyclopedia, the first major league home run was hit on May 2, 1876 by second baseman Ross Barnes of the Chicago White Stockings. Barnes hit just two home runs while playing in the National League; he had played for Boston in the amateur National Association (the precursor to the NL) prior to 1876. The inaugral home run came off of Cherokee Fischer of Cincinnati in the fifth inning. This was the only full season in which Fischer appeared in the NL, he threw 229.3 innings as the Reds' backup pitcher. The home-run came in the fourth game of the season for Chicago; by my count this was the eleventh league game of the season. Just forty homers came from the National League's first season, led by George Hall with five.
Most fans are familiar with the home run environment until Babe Ruth's uppercut swing changed baseball in the 1920s. Indeed, it was not until after the beginning of the American League that the 10,000th home run was hit, in 1903. (Baseball-Reference estimated which home run was hit based on the start of game times and the inning in which they were hit.) It was Joe Tinker, of Tinker-Evers-Chance fame, that knocked a homer off the Cardinals' Mordecai Brown in he 8th inning of a game on September 5. Interestingly, the early seasons of the 20th century saw a sharp decline in home runs. To illustrate this, I've plotted the first fifty years of the NL with respect to At Bats per Home Run:

As we've covered here before, there was a major rules change in the National League at the turn of the century; for the first time, a foul ball counted as a strike. The result was a large jump in strikeouts and a huge drop in total offense, home runs included. For comparison, the 1902 American League saw 147 at bats between home runs, while the National League averaged more than double-- 389 AB/HR. The following year, while the American League tried out the new foul rule experimentally, the numbers were much closer: 203 AB/HR for the AL and 251 AB/HR in the NL. The American League continued to show a slightly higher home run rate throughout the Dead Ball Era. One thing that's interesting is that the precipitous drop in HR rate occured in both leagues around the time Babe Ruth started playing first time. This suggests that although Ruth was certainly transcendent, his approach was not unique in baseball at the time.
It was around this time that Wally Pipp hit the 20,000th ML home run, off of the Senators' Joe Martina in the eighth inning on May 3, 1924. With the Live Ball Era in effect, each of the next ten thousand home runs took eight years, bringing us to the 50,000th home run, hit on June 30, 1948. It was the Giants' Johnny Mize, knocking one off of the Braves' Bill Voiselle in the sixth inning. The Pitchers' Heaven mini-period interviened and slowed homer rates a bit in the 1960s, but with the lowering of the mound in 1969, combined with expansion, baseball was primed for its 100,000th home run.
Entering play on April 30, 1970, the number was very close to 100K, and with 22 homers hit that day, the best estimate is that Atlanta Braves catcher Hal King hit the historic round-tripper in the second inning of a game against the Cubs. The Braves started their game at 8 PM and actually had a home run in the first, by Rico Carty. Fifteen batters came to the plate before King, and the entire game took just 2:33, so perhaps his homer was hit somewhere between 8:30 and 8:45. Five homers were in this game, two by Carty, and one by someone you may have heard of-- Hank Aaron. Unfortunately, the start time of the other games that day are unavailable, so it is unclear how close we came to the milestone being held by one of the best ever.
The second hundred-thousand home runs took considerably less than 90 years, it would come in 1999, in an interleague game. According to baseball-reference, it was in this game, when the Yankees' Paul O'Neill hit one deep to right centerfield, clearing the wall at Dolphins Stadium to lead off the top of the fourth inning. Livan Hernandez was the victim, and also gave up two other homers in the game. Incredibly, forty-eight home runs were hit on June 12, 1999, eleven of which came in day games (the Marlins-Yankees game started at 7:06 EDT). There were a number of early home runs in the night-games, but b-r.com feels that O'Neill's home run is the milestone.
This year, home runs have fallen from their incredible pace in the late-1990s. In 2007, the AL hit homers at a rate of 33.1 AB/HR, and the NL at 34.8 AB/HR. The rates are similar this season, and work out to almost exactly one per game for each team. So with 350 home runs to go for a quarter-million, will the milestone be passed this season? Through August 25, teams have played 3,928 games of the scheduled 4,860 (remember, I'm counting each contest twice, once for each team playing). With about 932 games left to play, it's almost certain that the milestone will fall sometime in September. Can we pinpoint this?
Based on the number of scheduled games according to mlb.com, there will be 342 games played between August 26 and September 7. If the number of homers continues at an average rate, it's likely that the milestone will occur sometime that Sunday afternoon. If that's the case, count on Immaculate Inning to do a liveblog of the events of the day, remote in hand. (Of course, with my luck it will happen on Fox Blackout Day...)
In the meantime, follow along with the Quarter Million Homer Widget, now featured in the sidebar.
Labels:
Baseball Statistics,
Home Runs,
Play Index,
Rare Events
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Walk Off Strikeout
The walk-off home run is one of the most spectacular plays baseball can offer. There are plenty of ways to end a game, of course. There's a blog dedicated to one of them- the walk-off walk. That's got to be pretty embarrassing for the pitcher. For the catcher, an even more embarrassing event has to be the walkoff strikeout- there, the pitcher has just dominated a hitter to get the strikeout.... but wait! The ball is bouncing around the backstop! The game-winning run scores!
How often does this kind of humiliation occur? Well, it just happened in a minor league game-- the Toledo Mud Hens beat the Pawktucket Red Sox 5-4 after Timo Perez swung at a ball in the dirt, and Freddy Guzman raced home with the winning run. In the major leagues, however, the event is somewhat rare. Unfortunately the Play Index won't let me run the search all at once; I had to check each year in the database individually. The results, in reverse chronological order:
August 3, 2005- With the game tied, a runner on third, and one out in the bottom of the ninth, Lou Pinella instructed Cubs pitcher Mike Remlinger to intentionally walk both Chase Utley and Bobby Abreu to load the bases. That brought up Pat Burrell, and Remlinger was replaced by Michael Wuertz- because apparently, going to the closer in a tie game on the road is ill-advised. Anyway, Burrell swung feebly at the first two pitches, and then Weurtz wasted a couple, including one in the dirt. On the 2-2 pitch, Weurtz got Burrell swinging, but the pitch got away from catcher Michael Barrett. According to this recap, Barrett panicked and threw to third rather than chasing down Jimmy Rollins, who was halfway between third and home. Rollins scored easily with the winning run. Barrett later claimed that umpire Dana DeMuth "did us a favor really by calling him out. If I had just eaten the throw and run at him, it would've been a different ballgame. I can't blame [DeMuth]. The place is so loud. I was expecting a foul tip call and didn't get it." Barrett was not alone in making a mental mistake in the game, but his was the most costly.
September 27, 2003- Late in the season, in front of a paltry crowd of 14,277, the worst team in over 40 years avoided tying the modern baseball single-season record for losses in a season by beating the Twins on a walk-off strikeout. The Detroit Tigers had rallied to tie from down 8-1 with a three-run seventh and a four-run eighth, but still needed a lot of help. With one out, Alex Sanchez drew a walk. With William Morris batting, Sanchez went to work- stealing both second and third base. This ESPN recap says that the 2-2 pitch went to the backstop, while Morris swung and missed. Sanchez scored easily, preventing the Tigers from losing their 120th game, which would have matched the 1962 Mets for most losses since 1900. Like Michael Barrett in the game above, Sanchez "thought it was a foul ball, but everyone in the dugout was yelling for me to go, so I took off. As soon as I started running, I knew we were going to win the game. That's when I put my arms in the air."
September 22, 1997- Walk-off strikeouts are not reserved only for poor teams; this time it was the 101-win Atlanta Braves who stunned the Expos in the eleventh inning. It had been seven innings since a run had crossed the plate, when Expos pitcher Shayne Bennett got into trouble-- a single, sacrifice bunt, and intentional walk gave runners on first and second with one out. Unfortunately, Bennett walked the next hitter, Greg Colbrunn, which brought up Mike Mordecai. Steve Kline was called from the bullpen, and quickly got to an 0-2 count. After wasting a pitch, Kline got Mordecai to swing on the next pitch, which was wild and Denny Bautist scored from third with the winning run.
June 16, 1986- The largest gap between walk-off strikeouts so far, more than ten years back to this game between the Rangers and Angels. With California trailing 1-0 in the ninth inning, Texas starter Charlie Hough was still going strong. The knuckleballer got pinch hitter Rupert Jones to strike out looking, and then another pinch hitter, Jack Howell, hit a line drive to left field. George Wright, who had entered the game in the ninth, presumably as a defensive replacement, botched the catch, which went for a three-base error. Wally Joyner singled in Howell, and advanced to second on a passed ball. After a strikeout and an intentional walk (of Reggie Jackson), it brought up George Hendrick. Hough is credited with a strikeout of Hendrick, which should have ended the game. But catcher Orlando Mercado is credited with a passed ball, and Joyner scored all the way from second. Mercado was generally a solid catcher, with only sixteen passed balls in his 247 career games, but six of them came in 1986-- his only season catching Charlie Hough. So perhaps we shouldn't heap too much blame on Mercado for this one; he probably wanted to wait for it to stop and pick it up. Still, this is the first of the games I've looked at where the walk-off strikeout should have been the third out; it also is the first game I've seen where the winning run scored from second.
August 15, 1970- Sixteen years, back to a classing pitching matchup between the Mets' Tom Seaver and the Braves' Phil Neikro. Seaver was still pitching in the ninth inning, his team up 2-1. Unfortunately for Seaver, it all began to fall apart-- a single (Tony Gonzalez), flyball, and infield single (Rico Carty) brought up pinch hitter Hank Aaron. The famous slugger drew a walk to load the bases for Bob Tillman. Seaver managed to get Tillman to strikeout for the third time in the game, but the pitch was wild. So wild, in fact, that it ended the game. The first run is charged to Seaver's wild pitch, but Rico Carty scored on an error by catcher Jerry Grote. So this game is interesting because the tying and winning runs scored on the strikeout, but it was an error that was ultimately responsible for the end of the game.
And that's all for the play index. Fifty-two years, and in just five games has there been a walk-off strikeout. We've seen it happen to good teams and some of the worst teams, good pitchers and bad. It probably won't make it into the memoirs of anyone involved, but their feats are stored here for all posterity.
How often does this kind of humiliation occur? Well, it just happened in a minor league game-- the Toledo Mud Hens beat the Pawktucket Red Sox 5-4 after Timo Perez swung at a ball in the dirt, and Freddy Guzman raced home with the winning run. In the major leagues, however, the event is somewhat rare. Unfortunately the Play Index won't let me run the search all at once; I had to check each year in the database individually. The results, in reverse chronological order:
August 3, 2005- With the game tied, a runner on third, and one out in the bottom of the ninth, Lou Pinella instructed Cubs pitcher Mike Remlinger to intentionally walk both Chase Utley and Bobby Abreu to load the bases. That brought up Pat Burrell, and Remlinger was replaced by Michael Wuertz- because apparently, going to the closer in a tie game on the road is ill-advised. Anyway, Burrell swung feebly at the first two pitches, and then Weurtz wasted a couple, including one in the dirt. On the 2-2 pitch, Weurtz got Burrell swinging, but the pitch got away from catcher Michael Barrett. According to this recap, Barrett panicked and threw to third rather than chasing down Jimmy Rollins, who was halfway between third and home. Rollins scored easily with the winning run. Barrett later claimed that umpire Dana DeMuth "did us a favor really by calling him out. If I had just eaten the throw and run at him, it would've been a different ballgame. I can't blame [DeMuth]. The place is so loud. I was expecting a foul tip call and didn't get it." Barrett was not alone in making a mental mistake in the game, but his was the most costly.
September 27, 2003- Late in the season, in front of a paltry crowd of 14,277, the worst team in over 40 years avoided tying the modern baseball single-season record for losses in a season by beating the Twins on a walk-off strikeout. The Detroit Tigers had rallied to tie from down 8-1 with a three-run seventh and a four-run eighth, but still needed a lot of help. With one out, Alex Sanchez drew a walk. With William Morris batting, Sanchez went to work- stealing both second and third base. This ESPN recap says that the 2-2 pitch went to the backstop, while Morris swung and missed. Sanchez scored easily, preventing the Tigers from losing their 120th game, which would have matched the 1962 Mets for most losses since 1900. Like Michael Barrett in the game above, Sanchez "thought it was a foul ball, but everyone in the dugout was yelling for me to go, so I took off. As soon as I started running, I knew we were going to win the game. That's when I put my arms in the air."
September 22, 1997- Walk-off strikeouts are not reserved only for poor teams; this time it was the 101-win Atlanta Braves who stunned the Expos in the eleventh inning. It had been seven innings since a run had crossed the plate, when Expos pitcher Shayne Bennett got into trouble-- a single, sacrifice bunt, and intentional walk gave runners on first and second with one out. Unfortunately, Bennett walked the next hitter, Greg Colbrunn, which brought up Mike Mordecai. Steve Kline was called from the bullpen, and quickly got to an 0-2 count. After wasting a pitch, Kline got Mordecai to swing on the next pitch, which was wild and Denny Bautist scored from third with the winning run.
June 16, 1986- The largest gap between walk-off strikeouts so far, more than ten years back to this game between the Rangers and Angels. With California trailing 1-0 in the ninth inning, Texas starter Charlie Hough was still going strong. The knuckleballer got pinch hitter Rupert Jones to strike out looking, and then another pinch hitter, Jack Howell, hit a line drive to left field. George Wright, who had entered the game in the ninth, presumably as a defensive replacement, botched the catch, which went for a three-base error. Wally Joyner singled in Howell, and advanced to second on a passed ball. After a strikeout and an intentional walk (of Reggie Jackson), it brought up George Hendrick. Hough is credited with a strikeout of Hendrick, which should have ended the game. But catcher Orlando Mercado is credited with a passed ball, and Joyner scored all the way from second. Mercado was generally a solid catcher, with only sixteen passed balls in his 247 career games, but six of them came in 1986-- his only season catching Charlie Hough. So perhaps we shouldn't heap too much blame on Mercado for this one; he probably wanted to wait for it to stop and pick it up. Still, this is the first of the games I've looked at where the walk-off strikeout should have been the third out; it also is the first game I've seen where the winning run scored from second.
August 15, 1970- Sixteen years, back to a classing pitching matchup between the Mets' Tom Seaver and the Braves' Phil Neikro. Seaver was still pitching in the ninth inning, his team up 2-1. Unfortunately for Seaver, it all began to fall apart-- a single (Tony Gonzalez), flyball, and infield single (Rico Carty) brought up pinch hitter Hank Aaron. The famous slugger drew a walk to load the bases for Bob Tillman. Seaver managed to get Tillman to strikeout for the third time in the game, but the pitch was wild. So wild, in fact, that it ended the game. The first run is charged to Seaver's wild pitch, but Rico Carty scored on an error by catcher Jerry Grote. So this game is interesting because the tying and winning runs scored on the strikeout, but it was an error that was ultimately responsible for the end of the game.
And that's all for the play index. Fifty-two years, and in just five games has there been a walk-off strikeout. We've seen it happen to good teams and some of the worst teams, good pitchers and bad. It probably won't make it into the memoirs of anyone involved, but their feats are stored here for all posterity.
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