Randy Johnson Trades: Revisited

While future hall of famers were being whisked across the country in blockbuster trades yesterday, the Yankees made a minor move of minor leaguers that went largely unnoticed. In it, Brian Cashman sent AAA infielder Alberto Gonzalez (no, not that one) to the Washington Nationals organization in exchange for AA pitcher Jhonny Nunez. With this trade, three fourths of the haul from the 2006 Randy Johnson trade are now out of the organization. What follows is a look back at those deals and the impact on the players and the Yankees.

To begin, Randy Johnson was acquired in the fall of 2005 from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Yankees were trying to recover from The Collapse of 2004, and it would be George Steinbrenner's final tyrranical off-season. In order to buy out Johnson's no-trade clause, the Yankees signed the 40-year old pitcher to a three year extension, which paid him $16 million. The money spent on RJ following this trade was later used by Cashman as a reason for not signing free agent Carlos Beltran, who went to the Mets for $13M/year. The trade losses:

Javier Vazquez: Aquired via trade in the previous offseason (for Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera), Vazquez pitched servicably for the Yankees during the regular season, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts. His ERA was below average (ERA+ of 92) but he was a workhorse in an otherwise aging rotation. It was the post-season that punched his ticket out of town, including this game, which I am pretty sure never happened or will be spoken of again. Since the trade, Vazquez has had a couple league average seasons- one with the Diamondbacks and one with the White Sox, in addition to a good 2007 season. It's possible that New York was just too much for Vazquez, but his loss isn't too great.

Dioneer Navarro: It was his addition in the trade that most angered me at the time. While the Yankees' farm system has beefed up nicely in recent years, the prospects at catcher remain far away from the majors (especially when they get decked in spring training). In the meantime the Yankees played with fire, no one even approaching respectable to replace Jorge Posada in the event of injury. Well, this season the fire finally burnt, and the Yankees had to make a big trade to fill the void. If, instead, they'd held onto Navarro, they could be enjoying the kind of production he's currently giving the first place Rays: .313/.370/.421 and an All-Star appearance.

Brad Halsey: For a while it looked as though Halsey might stick as a major leaguer- he was, after all, left-handed. But Halsey struggled for the Diamondbacks and A's, and his only claim to fame was giving up Barry Bonds' 714th home run.

Randy Johnson's two seasons in the Bronx were mixed; in 2005 he pitched well, 225 strong innings with an ERA+ of 112, and a solid strikeout ratio. But in 2006, RJ fell apart, ERA+ was 90, the strikeout rate dropped and so did his effectiveness. After a terrible ALDS against Detroit, Johnson was looking for a way out. Brian Cashman granted his wish on January 11, 2007, almost exactly two years from his previous trade. The haul:


Luis Vizcaino: The Viz would join the Yankees as his fourth team in as many years, but he had really kicked up his strikeouts (72 in 65 IP) as the Diamondbacks' set up man. The Yankees had him take charge of the seventh inning and he pitched okay- but with far too many walks. He had two of them, along with two hits, in just 2/3 of an inning in the 2007 ALDS, and his return was never likely. Vizcaino was offered arbitration following the 2007 seaosn but declined, netting a suppelementary round draft pick for the Yankees in the 2008 June Amateur Draft.

Alberto Gonzalez- The impetus for this piece, the man the blogs nicknamed The Attorney General (although it may be spelled differently: baseball-reference has him one way, milb.com another). A slick fielding, average-hitting shortsop, Gonzalez looked to be the kind of player the Yankees were looking for to replace the Miguel Cairos of the world- someone who could actually field multiple positions and not look totally lost at the plate. Unfortuanately, Gonzalez never developed much, with an OPS below .700 in both seasons in baby pinstripes. He was also awful at the plate in two major league callups, but never had much of a shot, not with The Captain in front of him.

Ross Ohlendorf- The former Princeton student struggled as a starter in his first season in the Yankees' organization, and the team made the decision to convert him to a reliever. Initially it worked out well, and Ohlendorf finished the season with important innings in the big leagues. But despite picking up a few mph on his fastball, Ohlendorf could not consistently get men out in the majors, and had been demoted prior to the Nady/Marte trade. He was starting again in Scranton; one rumor had him being re-converted to a starter, while another rumor was he was trying to learn a splitter. Either way, he's out of the organization as well.

Steven Jackson- Coming off a great season in AA (in the Arizona organization), Jackson had high promise coming to the Yankees. However, he struggled at both AA Trenton and AAA Scranton, and has bounced between the levels again this year. As a 26 year old, he's not much of a prospect any longer. While he's the last remaining direct evidence of the trade, he will probably not amout to much at the big league level, if any.


Finally, we have the aftermath in 2008. First of all, the Yankees used their supplemental draft pick on Jeremy Bleich, of Stanford University. Despite some injuries and seemingly sub-par statistics, Yankees fans and blogs have grown on Bleich, especially after this vote of confidence from Baseball America's John Manuel (though I'm not really sure what "But he's a guy." means...) Next we have the big trade, Ohlendorf and others (frontlined by 19-year old prospect Jose Tabata) sent to the Pirates for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. From the reports of the trade, Ohlendorf was the other key guy, and the Pirates chose from a list of minor leaguers for the other two spots. Still, despite a mediocre performance in the big-league pen, Ohlendorf had enough value to improve the Yankees for 2008 and beyond.

This brings us back to the final trade: Gonzalez for Nunez. While I established above that Gonzalez didn't bring much to the table for the Yankees, he's still by far the most major-league ready infielder the Yankees have; in the event of an injury to Jeter or Cano, the Yankees will struggle to put someone who can at least field the position adequately. Nunez, meanwhile, is a bit of a mystery. He's 22 years old and doing well at AA, so he still has a prospect status, and is apparently a fastball-slider type pitcher. But no more is known about him.

So, what to make of the trades? I still think that the first RJ trade was one of the worst "Steinbrenner moves," and with Cashman in control the Yankees would have been a better team in 2005 and 2006. Still, the trade haul for him has given the Yankees useful players both this year and, as a result of subsequent trades, next year.

Mariano Rivera: Greatest Pitcher of All Time

In a mop-up role, having not pitched for four days, Mariano Rivera took the mound in the ninth inning, facing the heart of the Baltimore Orioles' lineup. It started poorly, as Aubry Huff knocked Rivera's fourth cutter into the right field seats. But Mo settled down to retire Melvin Mora, Jay Payton, and Kevin Millar in order, vaulting himself into the history books.

That one inning pitched last night in Baltimore gives Mariano Rivera 1000.33 innings pitched for his career. By reaching this plateau, Rivera now qualifies for the all-time ERA and ERA+ leaderboards, according to Baseball-Reference.com. First, the classic statistic-- earned run average. Rivera now ranks 17th all time, tied with Jim Scott. Four of the pitchers ahead of Rivera had their careers end before 1900; the latest anyone ahead of him pitched was 1933 (some guy named Ruth), pitched seriously- 1927 (Walter Johnson).

If there's one thing the statistics revolution has taught me, it's that athletes are best judged relative to their peers. For while raw statistics are impressive, their true meaning only comes from studying how much better a great athlete was, compared to his competition. And so we reveal the new career adjusted ERA+ leader: Mariano Rivera. According to ERA+, Rivera has, since 1995, been 98 percent better than his peers, measured by ability to prevent earned runs. Rivera not only takes the top spot; he dominates it. Which raises the question: is Mariano Rivera the greatest pitcher of all time?

Clearly, mlb.com does not think a reliever should enter the discussion. Officially, to qualify for the career ERA title, one has to pitch 2000 innings, double the amount required by baseball-reference. A starting pitcher probably could eclipse the lower mark (1000 innings) in four or five full seasons; indeed Jake Peavy (7 seasons, 1202 IP) and Brandon Webb (6 seasons- 1235 IP) already grace the Active ERA leaderboard. But none of them have an ERA+ anywhere near the range of Mariano Rivera. Is his elevated ERA+ a factor of being a relief pitcher?

The short answer is: perhaps. Goose Gossage, whose recent election to the Hall of Fame might finally open the door for closers, finished with 1809 IP and an ERA+ of 126. All-Time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, who will soon match the 1000 IP plateau, has a career ERA+ of 144. Rather than try and name everyone; here is a list of all pitchers who relieved at least 80% of their games and threw at least 750 innings. Even with a lowered standard, only one other pitcher eclipses Pedro Martinez's record for career ERA+ by a starter (157)- Billy Wagner at 181. Rivera well out-paces Wagner's 181, although it lends some credence to the theory that relievers have inflated ERA+ that shouldn't be quantitatively compared to that of a lifetime starter.

Still, one has to expand the field to include all pitchers with 200 IP to find a single player who eclipses Rivera's ERA+ mark (and I didn't like who I found there either). Whatever the adjustment made to Rivera's numbers, due to his pitching role, it cannot completely erase how Rivera's peers have failed to come anywhere close to his production. Among pitchers with 1000 IP, Rivera is also in the top 25 in Strikeouts 9/IP, all time. Since 1995, no pitcher has prevented home runs better than Rivera. For fourteen seasons, Rivera has compiled a resume that I believe allows him to be compared with the starting pitchers, and statistically he rises as the best. And of course Rivera is, without a doubt the greatest relief pitcher of all time.

But if we can define "greatness" by performance relative to one's peers, no pitcher is greater than Mariano Rivera.

Who cares to challenge this?

Photo credit

Tale of the Tape

Source: ESPN

Unless, of course, this unsubstantiated rumor were true. Which it isn't.

Dear Brian Cashman:

Bonds: What are you waiting for?

Since the return of Alex Rodriguez to a struggling lineup on May 20, the New York Yankees are 24-14, scoring 5.36 runs/game (compared to 4.06 through the first 44 games of the season). The performance, combined with stellar pitching from Chien-Ming Wang (before he got hurt), Andy Pettitte (3 ER in his last 27 IP), Mike Mussina (2nd in the AL in wins), and Joba Chamberlain (1.84 ERA in 5 starts)... has propelled the Yankees to within five games of first place in the extremely competitive AL East.

On June 22, designated hitter Hideki Matsui limped off the field during a 4-1 win over Cincinnati and hasn't played since. It's another injury on his surgically-repaired left knee, which has landed him on the 15-day DL. Manager Joe Girardi acknowledged on Sunday that another (season-ending) surgery could be in order. If that's true, the Yankees' lineup will suffer much like it did without Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees' farm system is light on power-hitting bats in the high minors, and the trade market isn't strong yet. If only there were a slugger the Yankees could summon out of thin air. Wouldn't it be great if he were also free?

Oh wait, there is. Barry Bonds has been offered to each of the 30 major league teams to play at the league minimum of $390,000 (prorated for a shortened season). So, the arguably greatest hitter of all time is sitting on his ass while some teams like the Yankees struggle for offense. Let's go ahead and knock down some of the common reasons for not signing Bonds, from the Yankees' perspective:

1) He's too old. Last season, at the age of 42, Barry Bonds put up a line of .276/.480/.565 in 475 plate appearances. His home ball park had a park factor of 100- exactly neutral with respect to inflating/deflating hitting statistics. Where's the evidence that just one year later, all of a sudden Bonds would be able to hit home runs. Or at the very least take a walk- realize how absolutely insane a .480 on base percentage is... Barry Bonds reaches base a little less than half of the time. Plate discipline is not one of those things that suddenly drops off a cliff with age; so I fail to see the evidence that Bonds' age has anything to do with why he hasn't yet been signed.

2) He's a bad teammate. Most people would point to the altercations with Jeff Kent in the Giants' clubhouse, and Bonds' unwillingness to talk to reporters after games, as the main evidence for this claim. First of all, given the interactions with teammates after he left the Giants, that there's equal evidence it's Kent who's the bad teammate, not Bonds. Second of all, how do we have any idea that the way Bonds treats reporters corresponds to the way he treats his teammates? Bonds has no obligation to please these people, especially when they write scathing, inflammatory, borderline libelious things about him. As for the Yankees, they just signed and quickly promoted into the starting rotation, a man who was recently released from his previous team for "disrespecting teammates and club personnel." Doesn't that seem to suggest that Cashman is willing to give a little leeway on the whole "bad teammate" thing?

3) OMG STEROIDS!!!1!!!1!! Right, the 800 pound gorilla about Barry Bonds is the evidence that he took performance enhancing drugs prior to 2005. Some sub-points about this topic:

3A) Media circus Come on- it's the New York Yankees, who already have approximately 8,000 beat reporters and another 30,000 Japanese reporters in the clubhouse every day, and paparazzi who take pictures of Alex Rodriguez lounging in Central Park and going after the she-male muscular type. There's got to be some kind of saturation point for Media Circus-itude. Tied to this are the apparent concerns about Bonds' legal battles with perjury and so forth. Well, his court date is set for next January, four months after the season ends. Approximate effect on the Yankees' clubhouse: zero. Approximate effect on the Yankees on the field: also zero.

3B) He's a cheater! That's of course debatable, depending on your interpretation of the rules of MLB prior to 2005- the chemicals he allegedly took were not banned by MLB, but were illegal without a prescription. Either way, he's not taking them now- last season he had more "random" drug tests than any other player and not one came back positive. Okay, so he could be taking HGH, which does not show up in urine tests. But the evidence is mounting that HGH doesn't affect player performance anyway, and so by definition is not a PED. There is a general feeling around baseball that no one cares whether players are suspected of PED use- Astros' GM Ed Wade traded for Miguel Tejada knowing full well that his name would be in the Mitchell Report. In the Report itself, there's e-mails within the Boston front-office suggesting that Theo Epstein knew that Gagne's struggles could be lack-of-steroids related, and traded for him anyway.

More specific to the Yankees- Um... Jason Giambi? Andy Pettitte? These two players have admitted to taking some drug in an attempt to enhance their performance. I have watched about 75% of Yankees games this year, and I've not once heard Yankees fans boo either player. In fact, I've not once heard opposing fans boo either player, certainly not louder than they boo Jeter and Rodriguez. Conclusion: fans don't care about Giambi and Pettitte and their PED pasts; why should they care about Bonds'? (I have my theories, but Jason Whitlock is a much more credible source on that particular topic...)

3C) Yankee reputation! I'm not even sure what this objection really means, but I've heard it. Look, as anyone who's ever worn a Yankees shirt/jersey in public outside of New York/New Jersey can tell you, the Yankees are not exactly welcomed with cookies and milk across the country. At every ball park in the big leagues, you can hear fans making accusations about the Yankees' love for certain sexual acts. For millions of baseball fans, the only thing that will make them sympathetic to the Yankees, ever, is about 90 years without a title. Having a player who other fans despise is not something new to the Yankees. It's like anti-Bonds people aren't even trying. And if the Yankees sign Bonds and win the World Series, no one can claim it's because they "bought" Bonds; if he comes in at league minimum, your team could have had him too! And they passed on him! Because your GM is an idiot!

In closing, Brian Cashman:

Sign Barry Bonds.
Can't believe you haven't signed Barry Bonds yet.
What part of sign Barry Bonds do you not understand.
Meeeeeeeeeeh.

Shhhhhhh

Don't tell anyone, but the Yankees are 6-2 since Alex Rodriguez yelled "HA!" at Toronto third baseman Howie Clark. They've cut their AL East deficit from 14.5 games to 10.5 in a week. Up next, the Yankees take on the Pirates (26-34). In the last week:

Bobby Abreu: 33 PA .480/.606/.800 5 2B 1 HR

Robinson Cano: 34 PA .400/.471/.767 4 2B 2 3B 1 HR

Melky Cabrera: 34 PA .419/.441/.645 2 2B 1 3B 1 HR

Alex Rodriguez: 37 PA .387/.486/.742 2 2B 3 HR

Chien-Ming Wang: 2-0, 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA

Tyler Clippard: 2-0, 10 IP, 3.60 ERA

Mariano Rivera: 5.1 IP, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, 4 Saves

And the best pitcher of the last 50 years is making his first start of the season on Saturday. But don't tell the rest of the league. Shhhhh.

The Savior Is Coming

With the New York Yankees floundering at 25-31, 11.5 games out of the division and 8 games out of the wild card, things are looking desperate. Luckily, the Yankees will look upon one man, a master of the hill, an ace upon aces, to right the ship and bring the Bombers a twelfth straight division title. What? Roger who? That man, the savior is.... Runelvys Hernandez.

Yes, after signing him to a minor league contract, the Yankees will surely break out of their season-long pitching slump. This article goes as far as describing "Elvis" as "former Kansas City Royals ace." Now, skeptics might wonder which of his four seasons, none of which featured more than eight wins or an ERA below 4.30, would give Hernandez ace properties. But those skeptics would be wrong. Hernandez, he of a lifetime 4.77 K/9IP, is a force to be reckoned with. After all, Baseball-Reference.com has Hernandez's most similar player as: Tim Redding. And Yankees fans all know how devastating Tim Redding was in 2005.

So look not, Yankees fans, towards the overweight beacon of evil that is Roger Clemens. Look instead upon the face of your savior, the one and only Runelvys Hernandez.

Rock Bottom

To state the relevant facts: The Yankees close May 27, 2007 at 21-27, 12.5 games behind the best team in baseball in the American League East, and eight games behind Detroit in the AL Wild Card. As noted many times, the Yankees have a record well below what's expected based on the numbers of runs they score and allow. Yet after losing 4-3 to The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, Joe Torre's team is 2-9 in one-run games. The only two wins: deficit-erasing walk-off homers by Alex Rodriguez back in April. Injuries, an ineffective bullpen and an inconsistent offense have all contributed to a season on the brink of complete irrelevance. Indeed, coolstandings.com projects probabilities of teams winning against their remaining schedules- and if the Yankees continue their level of play, fans can expect just a 15% chance of making the playoffs.

Many Yankees fans my age (born 1984) or younger will often have an accusation of bandwagonism thrown at them, given that the Yankees have been a consistent winning team since 1994. Most people, when learning I am a Yankees fan, give me a disgusted look and probably assume I'm one of those frontrunners. When I explain I'm from New Jersey the look of disgust only gets worse ("Why not the Mets, then?"), and for some people even "Well, my Dad is a Yankees fan and I watched games with him since I was in diapers," as an explanation does not satisfy. So, this is a time for Yankees fans to make their true allegiances known.

No longer can a Yankee fan hang on every pitch as if it were the ninth inning of a World Serious game. No longer can a players' poor performance be acceptable because he is a "clutch post-season performer" or whatever. Instead, true Yankees fans must make an adjustment, and show characteristics that separate us from the sheep. I call them the Three Pees: Patience, Persistence, and Perspective. Viewed through this lens, there is lots to look forward to in 2007 for the Yankees:

1. Roger Clemens. Sure, the best pitcher of my lifetime has just become the most highly paid Deck Chair Realigner in history, but it does not change his status as the best pitcher of my lifetime. Odds are he'll still have at least some of the magic he had with the Astros the past two seasons, and that will be fun to watch.

2. Phil Hughes. Though a mild ankle injury has set back his rehab a bit, expect Phil Phranchise to return to the mound for the big league team this summer. For those fans who have come to be dissatisfied with the "spend more!" theory of team building, a young dominating pitcher is the cure. Relatedly, the emergence of young players like Robinson Cano (now on a 11 game hitting streak following a dreadful slump) and Chien-Ming Wang (back killing worms like only he can) give the team a much different look.

3. The Yankees as sellers. This could get exciting- Bobby Abreu, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Myers, Ron Villone, and possibly even Jason Giambi are players that could fill needs for teams with playoff dreams. While no team will be willing to give up too much to the Yankees, it will be refreshing to see other teams fall over themselves to deal for aging veterans.

4. Rooting against the Red Sox. Ah, my second favorite baseball team: whoever is playing Boston. Sure, the best record in the land right now, but they have their own ranks of the old (Schilling, Wakefield, Varitek) and perennially injured (Beckett, Drew). While the dream of overtaking the Red Sox may be far-fetched, rooting for Boston to lose is as rewarding as rooting for a T-lymphocite to knock out some flesh-eating Stapholococcus aureus.

5. Stat Padding! Hey, with the team out of the race, who cares whether A-Rod's home runs come in close games or not? I want to see him heat up again and challenge the AL single-season home run record. I want to see Jeter and Posada battle for a batting title. It managed to keep Yankees fans interested in 1985 when the Mattingly/Winfield batting race came down to the final day; 2007 would be no different.

Of course, knowing the NY Media we'll probably get a steady dose of daily updates on the contract situations of Posada, Rivera, and especially A-Rod. There's always the chance that orders come from up high and Hughes and Clippard and Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain are all traded for some crappy aging veteran to try to get the team on track. With a team out of the race, the Yankees should avoid a lame-duck situation and fire Torre before the end of the season, replacing him with the man for the future: Joe Girardi (Sorry Donnie Baseball, but you're too much like Torre and you're not ready). Brian Cashman, meanwhile, needs to show that he has the ability to make deals that will build a team for the long term: the Gary Sheffield and Randy Johnson trades were refreshing but so far an abysmal failure.

In the meantime, there is plenty to like about the 2007 baseball season outside of the Bronx. On the backs of a shaky, fly-ball heavy rotation, the team across town is looking to end a 20-year World Serious drought. Barry Bonds is about to put his asterisk-free name next to the words "All Time Home Runs Leader." In Milwaukee, the Brewers look to prove, once again, that small-market teams can compete without the need for a salary cap. Likewise in the American League, the Indians appear to finally be approaching their potential, while the Angels lead the AL West despite having only one respectable hitter.

So while the Yankees continue their free-fall to rock bottom, it's a time to realize how great a sport baseball is, and that passion can be directed at other targets besides "Win, at all costs."

(P.S. This post seems eerily familiar...)

No Two Yankees are Not on Fire

Four hamstring injuries (and a fired strength/conditioning coach), a broken leg, a broken finger, a struggling foreign import, and Carla Pavano. These are the days of our Yankee lives this season, and the result has been a frustratingly bad record of 19-23 heading into a three game series against the Red Sox in the Bronx. But I come here not to bury the Yankees, but to praise them, and offer hope. Hang on a second, while I put these on.

Okay, I'm back. We shall begin, as we normally do on this site, with Pythagoras. The three or four people who regularly read this site are rolling their eyes, sure. But it should make intuitive sense to anyone who thinks reasonably about sports that if a team averages a certain number of runs per game and allows a certain number of runs per game, that team will, over the course of a season, win a predictable number of games. This is so, and repeatedly proven by the folks at Baseball Prospectus, within a range of 3 wins or so (which I think is pretty damn good). With this, we can then see if a team, during a season, is over or underacheiving its expectations based on the number of runs it scores.

Indeed, the expected win percentages calculated by Baseball Prospectus show the Yankees as one of the most underacheiving teams of 2007. Only the Cubs and Reds have similar underperformance, while the Brewers seem to be the most overacheiving. I use the word acheive specifically, as opposed to performance; the latter word is exactly what is suggested by the Pythagorean Win Percentage. And the PWP suggest that the Yankees should be 23-19. They have scored 227 runs (5.4/game, tied for 3rd in the ML) and allowed 200 runs (4.8/game, 25th in ML). While the pitching isn't great, it makes sense that a team that scores more than it allows should be above .500, at least.

So why are the Yankees so underacheiving? The classic explanations, which I haven't seen convincingly proven anywhere, are that teams fall below their Pythag Win Percentage when they fail to win their share of close games. The Yankees are 2-8 in one-run games. They also suggest that having a poor closer would sway this one-run game success, and unfortunately the greatest closer of all time has blown three saves this year for the Yankees (and accounts for 3 of the 8 one-run losses). On the offensive side, some would suggest that the result is the ever-elusive Clutch Hitting. While we can argue till doomsday whether it exists for individual players, the sample for a whole team should be big enough to draw some conclusions. So, the Yankees offensive stats:

So there is some evidence that the Yankees are underperforming in "Late & Close" situations (seventh inning on with the game either tied, winning by one run, or with at least the tying run on deck). Part of this can be explained by the 9th inning: hitters are going to do worse against the best pitcher in the opposing teams' bullpen (the closer, theoretically).

My point isn't one of "everything is fine, nothing is ruined." To the contrary, I think that "luck," and specifically better performance in one run games, is only part of the story of a 2007 team turnaround. The other part is better pitching. Allowing 4.8 runs per game just isn't all that good, even if it does project to a winning record with the Yankees' offense. The pitching simply needs to get better. So it's time to do some fuzzy math. The Yankees have played 42 games. Forty-two, in addition to being the answer to the Ultimate Question, is also a little more than one-fourth of the season. The second quarter will feature a similar schedule, as both sections contain six games against the Red Sox, three against the Mets, and three against Oakland. Series against Pittsburgh and Arizona are comparable to series against Tampa Bay and Seattle, while Colorado and Texas are similar. So let's see what could potentially happen over the next 42 games.

To this point, Yankees starters not named Wang, Pettitte, or Mussina have pitched 104.6 innings, giving up 74 runs, or 6.36 runs/game. That is awful. Now, let's have some fun: Roger Clemens, in 2006, pitched 113 innings and gave up 34 runs. Baseball Prospectus has adjusted for his age and move to the American League and projects an ERA of 3.36 for Clemens in 2007. The Rocket could make his first start for the Yankees on May 28 against Toronto; assuming he pitches every five days that gives him seven starts in the Yankees next 42 games. In addition, some combination of Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, and Phil Hughes will also be making starts every fifth day instead of Kei Igawa and Friends. Those three have combined, so far, to allow 12 runs in 33.7 innings (3.2 runs25-16. /game). PECOTA has Clippard at 4.88 ERA and Hughes at 3.78 ERA for 2007 in the majors (no card for DeSalvo, which isn't surprising).

So let's assume, for a minute, that Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, the Yankees' bullpen and offense all perform similarly for the next 42 games. In this experiment all we're changing is the identity of the Yankees' fourth (Clemens) and fifth (Hughes/Clippard/DeSalvo) starters. They will replace pitchers who in roughly, 27% of all innings for the Yankees, and allowed 6.4 runs/game. By my calculations, if the new guys lower the 4th/5th starter runs/game to the level of the Big Three and the Bullpen (about 4.36 runs/game), the Yankees will have a Pythagorean record of 26-16. That's a three game improvement over the first 42 games. Best case- the Yankees exceed this by a standard error (let's say 2 games) and end up, after 84 games, at 47-37. Of course it is possible that the one-run games futility continues and the Yankees underacheive their Pythagorean expectations just as badly as in the first 42 games- it did happen to the Cleveland Indians last year, who ended up 12 games below their expected win total.

I think it has been shown, though, that it is reasonable to expect the Yankees to perform substantially better in the second quarter of the season- not only because of "bad luck" tossed their way via injury and failure in close games, but also because the pitching rotation will further increase the gap between runs scored and runs allowed. In the meantime, it is useless and only discouraging to look up at Boston in the standings; as long as the Yankees take care of business against non-Boston opponents, they are Doing Their Job. After next weekend the Bombers don't play the Red Sox until September, so leaderboard watching is useless. Besides, there is another way into the playoffs besides winning the division. Ask the Marlins.

Cookie of the Indeterminate Time Period

Congratulations to the Yankees for aquiring Roger Clemens and thereby securing this week's cookie. This isn't rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, this is installing a new Convention Center on the Titanic. The Yankees aren't going anywhere this year. It's true that Wang has looked pretty good this year and that in Hughes' single start he looked very promising, but their pitching is still a mess. One starter does not a rotation make.
In order for this deal to work out at all, Clemens must regain his top form, not get injured, and get some run support. While this last point is not under Clemens' control, it underscores the effect that one starter has in the regular season. If Clemens takes the mound and the hitters get shut down by Josh Beckett, then it might as well be me up there pitching. Under the most wildly optimistic scenario the Yankees win 5 games more than they would've won had they not made this deal.
Now, one might say, that the Yankees are really looking at the playoffs. I'll condede that a healthy Clemens is a very valuable resource in the playoffs(except when he tries to knock Cabrera away from the plate), but the Yankees are not winning the AL East this year, the Red Sox are too good. The Yankees will have to get very lucky to sneak in with the Wild Card. Perhaps if they did, they could go to war with a Clemens, Wang, Hughes, Mussina(?) rotation. They would still need to make a move to bolster the bullpen and Rivera isn't the three automatic outs that he once was.
I think the real motivation for this move was Brian Cashman's desire to keep his job. From his perspective this actually does make a lot of sense. It's not his money and the Yankees don't have to give up any prospects. On any other franchise that was in a similar situation, aside from the Red Sox, this deal would be completely irresponsible. The Yankees are paying more than half the entire Marlins 2007 payroll to one guy for half a season's work who only plays one out of every 5 games.

Phil of the Future

Yesterday, it was announced that on Thursday, the New York Yankees will call up RHP Phil Hughes for his major league debut. This is a significant event for this storied franchise, and not just because the tattered rotation of 2007 will be featuring its fourth rookie starting pitcher. It is significant because Phil Hughes is the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball, a player who was not only drafted by, but also developed by the spendthrift and prospect depleted New York Yankees.

To put this in perspective, here is a list of the #1 draft picks of the Yankees who, in my lifetime, have ever appeared in a major league game:

1990 Carl Everett, OF
1993 Derek Jeter, SS
1996 Eric Milton, SP
2001 John Ford-Griffin, OF (7 ML Games)

Here now is a list of all of the pitchers who were obtained via the amateur draft and went on to be part of the rotation for the New York Yankees:
1986: Scott Kamieniecki (debut 1990)
1987: Dave Eiland (debut 1990)
1989: Sterling Hitchcock (debut 1993)
1990: Andy Pettitte (signed as a FA in 1991, debut 1995)

Further, here is a selected list of "the next big thing" pitchers that I can remember in my life as a Yankee fan, and what happened to them.
1991 #1 Overall Draft Pick Brien Taylor: After signing to the biggest bonus in MLB history ($1.55 million), Taylor pitched less than one season before tearing his labrum while in a bar fight defending his brother. He missed two seasons and was finally released by the Yankees in 1998, and remains one of two #1 overall picks to never make it to the majors.
Ed Yarnell: Yarnell was involved in two fairly infamous trades before he even through a pitch in the majors. First, having been hyped by the NY press for a few years, he was traded by the Mets to the Marlins in a package that brought them Mike Piazza. Less than a year later, the Marlins swapped Yarnell right back to NY, this time to the Yankees for Mike Lowell. After recovering from cancer, Lowell would go on to lead the Marlins to the 2003 World Series title; Yarnell retired in 2004 having pitched just 20 innings in the majors.
Jake Westbrook: Out of all the prospect pitchers the Yankees have traded away since 1996, Westbrook is probably the most successful. Originally obtained in the Hideki Irabu dump in 1999, Westbrook was rushed through the minors, pitching in AAA at age 22, made two terrible starts for the Yanks in 2000, and was promptly traded for David Justice at the deadline. The trade worked out, as there is probably no three-peat for the Yanks if Justice is not there, and Westbrook has become an All-Star caliber pitcher for the Indians.

There are other similar stories to Westbrook, pitchers such as Brandon Claussen and Ted Lilly and Brad Halsey who were all rushed to the major leagues in order to appear more attractive, and then used as trade bait. Meanwhile the Yankees got their pitchers off the free agent market or via ill-advised trades. This has begun to change, starting with the rise of Chien-Ming Wang in 2005 and 2006. Wang, who makes his first start of the season tonight, was himself a 2001 foreign free agent signing, and is a little more like Irabu and Jose Contrares than Phil Hughes and Brien Taylor.

Hughes is young. He is two months away from his first legal alcoholic drink. As Steve Lombardi points out, no one has ever pitched 65 innings for the New York Yankees in a season that they started younger than 21 years old. Success in the major leagues when making a debut at Hughes' age is very risky: for every Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, and Fernando Venezaula, there is a Rick Ankiel, a Mike Witt, and a Dave Rozema. Meanwhile, the state of the New York Yankees is a bit desperate: sitting at just 8-9 and four games behind Boston already, the Yanks' rotation is in shambles. One must wonder at the wisdom behind putting a season of the most dissected sports franchise in the world onto the shoulders of such a young man. The pressure to produce right away is palpable- while there is no question that Hughes has the ability to get major league hitters out, the rate at which he does so may be limited at first.

At each level- high A Tampa, AA Trenton, and AAA Scranton, he has struggled in his first two starts. It is reasonable to expect him to do the same in his first starts in the majors. It would be not altogether unlike the debut of the man he idolizes and draws comparisons to: Roger Clemens. In 1984, the Rocket struggled in his first 8 starts, giving up about 4.5 runs per start and seldom making it past the fifth inning. It wasn't until his complete game, 9 K performance against the Blue Jays, that things started to turn around for Roger.

Here are the things that are known about Hughes: He has, in 265 professional innings, struck out 289 batters while walking only 60 and surrendering just six homers. He has a mid-to-high 90s moving fastball, a superb curveball, and has developed a nasty 78 mph changeup, and can throw all three wherever he wants, whenever he wants, at all times. After those first two starts, Hughes has absolutely dominated each level he has been at, while often facing hitters three to five years older than he. On Thursday he will face his hardest challenge of all, against experienced hitters such as Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, and Frank Thomas. It is a significant day in the course of a storied franchise, and whether he shines or falters, Phil Hughes is here to stay as a beacon of the New Age of the New York Yankees: Pride, Power, and Youthful Pinstripes.

Would You Like To Take A Walk?

Since he bumped the woeful Tony Womack out of the lineup in 2005, Cano has quickly become my new favorite player, and the leading candidate in the “Next Yankees Jersey that Matt Buys” contest. Among other things, his left-handed swing is just one of those fun things to watch in baseball. I clearly remember Robinson's second MLB homer, because it was against the Red Sox. With the Yanks trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth, Cano smacked the first pitch he saw into the bleachers in right-center. I was hooked.

Last season Cano bounced back from a rough start and a hamstring injury to compete in a down-to-the-wire batting race with teammate Derek Jeter and the Twins’ Joe Mauer. Though he finished third, Cano proved the ability to use his sweet stroke to keep his batting average up. As many saber-friendly columnists have written about him, Cano needs to keep hitting line drives for hits in order to sustain his usefulness, as he has traditionally shown an inability to walk. His highest OBP in the minors at any extended stay was a .356 rate in half a season at AA Trenton in 2004. In the majors this trend has continued, as Robinson recorded just 34 walks in 1,004 at bats between 2005 and 2006.

Part of the reason for the lack of walks has been the number of pitches he sees per at bat. This has improved thus far in 2007, as Cano has raised his typical P/PA from 3.18 (career) to 3.74 (2007). His walk rate has improved considerably as a result- to 10.6 PA/BB (2007) versus 29.7 PA/BB (career). While Cano’s power has been lacking so far this season, he had the same number of extra base hits (2) that he had through the first eleven games of 2006.

In the meantime, Cano has shown an extra-ordinary ability to make contact when he swings. According to my calculations, in 2007 Cano has seen 185 pitches, and has swung at 90 of them. While this is a high rate, he has only missed while swinging on 16 of those pitches (an 80% contact rate), and has put the ball in play 37 of 90 swings (the other 37 are fouls, obviously). By comparison, Bobby Abreu- noted patient hitter and Cano’s mentor on the Yankees, swings at 38% of the pitches he sees, but makes contact with 80% of those. In addition, Cano is swinging at the first pitch a lot less (24% this season) than previously (35% career), but still way above his mentor’s career rate (a staggeringly low 14% for Abreu). For what it’s worth, Cano’s 13 first pitch swings this season have resulted in five fouls, three swinging strikes, and five balls in play: three flyouts, a double, and a groundout.

As a minor leaguer Cano was ridiculed for having a soft bat at the plate and hard hands in the field, and minor league observer John Sickels famously (among bloggers anyway) predicted that Cano would struggle, if he ever got to the majors. Clearly Robinson has made some adjustments as he started playing on the grand scale, but doubters were not convinced, having the “he doesn’t walk” complaints I alluded to above. It looks like he is again making adjustments and is improving his patience as well as his walk rate. However, I hope that Cano’s newfound ability to take pitches does not have long-term effects on his line-drive rate, which would impact his usefulness even more than an inability to walk. It will be telling season for Cano, as his third season officially dubs him as a “veteran,” and his long-term outlook should become clearer. I know that I’ll be excited for each at bat.

New Jork Jan-kees Beisbol

I have been previewing Yankees seasons since the Internet was a few computers linked to Al Gore's hive mind. Indeed, in April of 1996 I wrote that "the departure of Yankee hero Don Mattingly will be eased by the young talent of rookie shortstop Derek Jeter" and that "the Yankees will improve upon their wild card finish in 1995." Pretty good for a sixth grader, eh?

Eleven years later the Yankees have won four world championships, but none in the past six seasons. This caused the front office to open up the franchise's massive wealth (remember, of the title teams, only the 2000 Yankees led the league in payroll). Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Gary Sheffield, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, and others were signed without regard for expense. The farm system was sacrificed for the likes of Javier Vazquez and Randy Johnson. Then, in the offseason following a disappointing exit at the hands of the Angels in 2005, a change. Brian Cashman was given free reign over the payroll and personnel. Though Johnny Damon was signed to a large contract, it was not the "beat all other offers with more money" kind of signing from years past. During the season, Cashman traded a couple of bags of balls and Matt Smith to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle.

This off-season, the Yankees conducted three trades involving aging, deteriorating veterans. And they traded them away. While perhaps the bounty could have been more diverse than the six right handed pitchers received in exchange for Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield, and Jaret Wright, the shift in roster building approach is the most exciting news out of Yankeeland in years. Homegrown talent Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, and Melky Cabrera joins the core of homegrown talent from the late 90s dynasty (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and the returning Andy Pettitte). It poses a problem for Yankee-haters: while I don't expect them to stop their jealous hate, they will have to change their attacks. Should the Red Sox sign Roger Clemens, they, and not the Yankees, will have the highest payroll in baseball. By June and the likely call-up of phenom Phil Hughes will give the Yanks a roster that is nearly half home-grown. Which other big-market teams can claim that?

Taking off the rose-colored glasses for a minute, there are weaknesses to the 2007 squad. The pitching staff lacks that "ace" that is always treasured- but Wang will return in April to join a strong core of Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte. The performance of Japanese import Kei "Quest" Igawa and Carl "I'm not made of glass, I swear" Pavano remains to be seen. I feel that the pitching staff is better than last years', and that staff was far enough above terrible to allow the Yankees offense to slug its way to a tenth consecutive division title.

The lineup, meanwhile, remains largely intact. The futility at the plate of Doug Mientkievicz (almost got it right on the first try. I before e.) will take the role of Bernie Williams' recent futility, or Tony Womacks' before him. Like Williams and Womack, I have a feeling that Mientkievicz will be replaced by midseason, either by Josh Phelps playing full-time or Jason Giambi returning to the field more often. The rest of the lineup is strong, with the typical all-stars at every other position. The bullpen is much stronger than last years', and deeper as well, so when Joe Torre decides to take some right arm hostage (see Proctor, Scott; Sturtze, Tanyon; Quantrill, Paul) there will be adequate replacements.

The biggest threat to the Yankees' AL East streak is injuries in the wrong places. The team would suffer greatly with an injury to Jeter, Rodriguez, or Posada, as there are few replacements in the minors. However, infielders can be had via trade (using the RHP surplus built up by Cashman), which leaves back-up catcher as the primary weakness for the Yankees. So the biggest weakness is a "might/maybe" injury to an aging, but healthy catcher- it sounds like a recipe for a repeat performance as the best team in (regular season) baseball in 2007.