Thursday, March 19, 2009

ACC Teams in NCAAT: Real Time Chances

Throughout the day, I'm going to re-simulate the NCAAT as each team loses. Then, I am going to plot for each ACC team, their chances of making the Final Four. The first update should be around 2:30 Eastern, and will definitely have implications for North Carolina. Check back here often to see your team's chances change, in real time*!

Starting Chances:

North Carolina (#1 South): 15.28%
Duke (#2 East): 17.61%
Wake Forest (#4 Midwest): 9.72%
Florida State (#5 East): 4.62%
Boston College (#7 Midwest): 1.61%
Maryland (#10 West): 0.90%

*What the hell does "real time" mean anyway? As opposed to fake time? How would I update in fake time, anyway?

Update 1: 3:18 PM

Just ran a new simulation, taking into account the results of the 12 PM games. Three games, and already one pretty large upset, although you wouldn't tell it from the seeds. In the initial simulation, Butler beat Texas A&M 63% of the time. As you can see, there is not much change for the ACC teams. Click on the other tabs to see a handy progression chart for Final Four chances and for Average Wins. The biggest positive effects seem to be on the chances of UConn and Texas A&M making the final four (up 3-4% each), while no teams dipped all that much. The next update will be around 5 PM with the results of the 2:30 games, which will have a much bigger impact on the ACC teams, since two of them are playing...

Important note: the Pythagorean Win Percentages used to make this simulation are different from the ones used Sunday. I mistakenly did not save the original rankings, and the new rankings take into account adjustments based on the NIT results... if an NIT team played well, all of their opponents will have better adjusted stats. That is the reason why teams like Wake had their chances change from pre-tourney. I think the rest of the first round I will use today's statistics, rather than have them adjust each time.

Update #2: 12:52 AM

The results of Day 1 of the NCAA tournament are final. There were some exciting finishes in the first sixteen games, and by the seeds only one true upset. However, by the statistics there were some fairly unlikely results; BYU was favored 2-to-1 over Texas A&M, and Maryland was a 3-to-1 underdog against California. But as they say, that's why they play the games. Overall the "average wins" bracket was 12 for 16 (75%) on the first day, and lost zero teams beyond the second round. One of the games was as close to a coin flip as one can probably get; Butler beat LSU a slim 50.62% of the original simulations.

For the ACC, the major changes are obviously for Clemson, upset by a hot shooting Michigan team, and Maryland, whose one actual win only improves their "average wins" score by 0.74! In terms of Final Four probability, both Duke and Carolina saw their chances decrease throughout the day, despite winning. This is because while both teams were heavily favored to win their games, the teams in their way were not as heavily favored. In those matchups where Duke was playing Minnesota and American on the way to the Elite Eight, Duke would be the heavy favorite; those matchups are now impossible in the simulation.

Overall, the team with the biggest "bump" today was Memphis, which rose to an 11.73% chance of winning it all, thanks to the Maryland upset. Connecticut also benefited from the Texas A&M "on paper" upset, rising to 11.14%. Those two teams now sit at a combined 50% chance to win the west region; it doesn't look promising for the challengers there.

The biggest story is probably that North Carolina is no longer favored to win the South regional. After their win over Morgan St, and a very favorable matchup against Michigan in the second round, raised Oklahoma to 22.93% chance to make the Final Four. This is exactly the sort of thing we were looking for with these predictions-- how the matchups dictate who has the best chances to survive and advance. This will probably change dramatically tomorrow, especially if Syracuse and Arizona St. hold serve in the rest of Oklahoma's bracket. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

1 comment:

Xenod said...

There's always imaginary time, the time that is counted as the squareroot of -1 seconds.