Friday, March 13, 2009

Updated ACC Tourney Probabilities

With the first six games in the ACC Tournament complete, let's revisit the log5 predictions, which are based on tempo-free efficiency ratings accrued in ACC games only:

These are up to date following FSU's escape of Georgia Tech in the second afternoon game. As you can see, North Carolina has increased their chances of winning the tournament to better than 50/50. Duke's tournament chances have actually gone down, caused by no longer having the possibility of playing Virginia. Both of tonight's quarterfinal games have a similar 4-to-1 advantage for favorites Duke and Wake Forest. Maryland doesn't have much of a chance of winning the tournament, but should they pull the upset tonight, would that be enough to get the ACC a seventh team in Teh Dance?

The other story lines remaining in the ACC tournament are all about seedings. Carolina probably locked up their #1 seed with a win, considering that they're actually still playing, unlike UConn, Pitt, and Oklahoma. The ACC results are not in a vaccuum, the seedings of Duke and Wake are heavily influenced by the results of the other tournaments. For example, someone upsetting Memphis or Louisville capturing the Big East tournament would have top-seeded implications.

Stay tuned to Immaculate Inning for all your March Madness projection needs. We've got a big project in the works to unveil late Sunday or early Monday. NCAA Hoops- Awesome!

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